Eric Worrall is among the best writers here and is also the most prolific writer here. When you multiply the high quality of his articles by the high quantity of his articles, Eric W. was the best WUWT author in 2022.
I think the website should be renamed: “WUWT, featuring Eric Worrall.” (And he didn’t pay me a dollar to write that, did you cousin Eric? … that was a joke, in case you didn’t notice.)
They already have until September of 2023, since the omnibus funds the federal government until then. That also gives them 9 months to decide what parts of the government they continue to fund after the House shuts down more borrowing, AND the propaganda campaign they will wage when shutting down the areas they will for the most negative effect on actual tax paying citizens. Remember the FIRST department Clinton shut down was the National Parks, locking all the gates, so that the vacationing taxpayers would be the most inconvenienced. The times change, but the Democrat playbook remains the same.
Ireneusz Palmowski
January 1, 2023 2:50 am
A strong storm is developing over southern California and will move northeast. Intense snowstorms may occur on the western side of the storm and tornadoes on the eastern side.
There is a chance for flowers in Death Valley.
It must be that Category 4 Atmospheric River coming in from the Pacific Ocean.
That’s how it was described in the Media the other day: Category 4. These climate alarmists never give up. They are always looking for more ways to scare the public.
Vegas weathermen claim:
“It’s worse than we thought possible.
Obviously caused by climate change.
Someday Las Vegas will get two feet of snow,
just like the old 1930s Snow Bowl days”
Ireneusz
– Ireneusz is a Polish male given name that comes from the Greek eirenaios.
I’m half Polish and my wife is 100% Greek.
We can’t figure out how to pronounce your name.
Could you teach us in a very simple way?
(We are both retired professional simpletons)
Thanks. You can listen to the pronunciation on Audio. I provide the link. Happy New Year. Give my best regards to your spouse. https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Ireneusz
We are enjoying a predicted 2 feet of global warming here on Cedar mountain in southwestern Utah. (Above where the circled 35 is.) We are at 8600 ft. elevation. It has been 27 degrees since 6:30 this morning and snowing around an inch an hour, heavy wet snow.
I will be enjoying the global warming as I blow it from my driveways SOON. I need to blow before the new global warming is higher then the blower opening, about 18 inches, which with the wind, is already the case in a few drifted areas.
I submitted a request for next week:
“Climate Malarkey”.
Ron Long
January 1, 2023 2:55 am
SEQUENCE STRATIGRAPHY. Why are Geologists a lot more skeptical about CAGW claims than the general population? In the early 1970’s, aided by a great increase in offshore seismic data, EXXON geologists and geophysicists realized that stratigraphic profiles around the world tended to correlate. This EXXON Team, led by Peter Vail, began utilizing the predictive ability of the migration of the target depositional environment, including both source rocks and trap rocks, to enhance petroleum exploration. There was a rapid realization that sea level fluctuated up and down in grand cycles, some regular and some not, based on global temperatures, ie, hotter causes less glacial ice accumulation on land masses and the sea level goes up, colder and glacial ice accumulates on land masses and sea level goes down. Imagine, grand sea level variance, say 40 meters higher than now, and 140 meters lower than now, and no human influence. Every petroleum exploration effort in the world now utilizes the predictive ability of Sequence Stratigraphy in generative exploration, which is a verification fact that the CAGW nonsense is totally lacking. Yes, it is just like they say “EXXON KNEW!”.
Exxon Knew because they had better scientists than the second-rate cohort populating the MET office ranks. And they knew it when academia was still twiddling their thumbs.
Adam Smith knew in 1776 with Wealth of Nations that the enlightened self-interest of individuals seeking profit serve the interests of all men.
In a perverse way, the same principle is illuminated by the unenlightened corrupt self-interest of the climastrology Gang Green. Rather than seeking to serve others and profit in the process, they seek to serve a political agenda which profits them at the expense of the common man.
Academia was predicting global warming from CO2 since the late 1950s, such as by oceanographer Roger Revelle and his team members.
The 1979 Charney Report put some numbers down (wild guessed an ECS) which magically converted AGW into CAGW.
And the CAGW hoax has continued ever since. The IPCC didn’t bother changing the Charney Report wild guess from 1988 until a few years ago, when they narrowed the range by deleting the more reasonable low end of the old Charney ECS. ( +1.5 degrees C. was not scary enough — and the IPCC could not tolerate that ! )
If you’re going to wild guess ECS, why not change the range arbitrarily any time you feel like it?
I personally think the IPCC should have added some decimal places, such as +2.145 to 4.528 degrees C. More decimal places = more scientific sounding (I remember that from my science courses when getting my BS degree, You can’t have too many decimal places, they taught us, or at least someone in the class said that, if not a professor.)
Academic work on the foundations of the “greenhouse” effect began in the early 1800’s by Fourier and later with gaseous heat absorption of water and carbon dioxide studied by John Tyndall and others. Arrhenius, was also prominent in this field around 1900.
Back then, warming was accepted as being beneficial.
When I was in school in the late 60s, early 70s industry recruiters visited the engineering campus every spring and scooped up the cream of the crop. It was not unusual for the best and brightest to have jobs in private industry lined up as juniors – often with tuition and expenses covered by future employers. Those less talented who didn’t drop out mostly ended up with government jobs of stayed in school and got PhDs.
Not quite true Ed, following is exactly what Exxon knew in 1982 from their own internal memo. Notice that most of the graphs and reference are to NOAA and university studies. Exxon’s engineering department knew how to build cat-crackers and hydro-treaters and their marketing department knew how to outsell the other sisters. Climate was academic hearsay combined with sales projections for them.
A fun fact: “Exxon knew!!1” plot was a reuse of “Pentagon knew!!1” plot. Which may be the “official” start of New Deal 2.0 State, no less.
«The case that created the modern American system of government by leak was the Pentagon Papers case, in which McNamara’s policy shop at DoD (ironically, the ancestor of Douglas Feith’s much-maligned operation) wrote a study of Vietnam which revealed that the Viet Cong was not a North Vietnamese puppet, had the support of the Vietnamese people, and could never be defeated militarily, especially not by the corrupt and incompetent ARVN. The Joint Chiefs yawned. Daniel Ellsberg quite illegally leaked his own department’s work to the Times, which used it quite effectively to amaze the public—which had no idea that Washington was a place in which the Defense Department might well employ whole nests of pro-VC intellectuals, and regarded the study as a declaration against interest. In the public’s mind, the Pentagon was one thing. The fact that it was pursuing a war that its own experts had decided was unwinnable was permanently fatal to its credibility.» (An Open Letter to Open-Minded Progressives, Chapter 9).
Yeah, except those experts were wrong, and/or are mischaracterized by you. The U.S. did defeat the North Vietnamese to the point that the North Vietnamese signed the Paris Peace Accord to end the war.
So anyone who said it wasn’t possible was wrong. Not that many said it was impossible, btw. The Pentagon Papers were assessments that took place over many years, by many people, with many different opinions, and here you are trying to make them out like the definitive source on the Vietnam war.
Here’s a definitive source for what went on during the Vietnam war:
Stolen Valor : How the Vietnam Generation Was Robbed of Its Heroes and Its History
And here you are trying to rob us of our history again.
It wasn’t the U.S. military’s fault that South Vietnam finally fell. It was the fault of leftwing, anti-war, appeaser politicians like current Trafficer-in-Chief, Joe Biden, who threw the South Vietnamese to the Wolves by refusing to leave American troops in South Vietnam after the peace agreement was signed, and then failing to come to the aid of South Vietnam after North Vietnam violated the peace agreement and again attacked South Vietnam.
The United States was legally and morally obligated to go to South Vietnam’s aid, but the leftwing appeasers would have none of it and told South Vietnam to go to hell. The U.S. military had nothing to do with South Vietnam falling. They were not even involved at the time. It was all the leftwing politicians doing.
The Trafficer-in-Chief is literally responsible for the death and displacement of *millions* of innocent people in Vietnam and millions more during the rest of his horrible political career.
I ended up going to Vietnam because I couldn’t believe the things I was reading about the war in the U.S. newspapers. Every day there was another horror story about how the American troops were being beaten badly in battle and were barely hanging on by a fingernail in Vietnam.
I said to myself, this can’t be true. If it is true, then my whole worldview is wrong. So I had to go see if my whole worldview was wrong and I volunteered to be transfered to Vietnam.
When I got to Vietnam, I realized I had been lied to by the American press. American troops had everything well under control, and this was right after the North Vietnamese Tet Offensive of 1968, where the North Vietnamese were beaten badly, and the communist terrorists living in South Vietnam, the Viet Cong, were virtually wiped out as a fighting organization. The Leftwing American press describe the Tet Offensive as a great defeat for Americans! That’s how off-the-mark their reporting was.
That was the time when I learned not to trust the Leftwing Media. I saw that they lie for political purposes and are not to be trusted or believed and one should be skeptical of everything they say. The truth is not in them.
And they are still lying now. One good example is the distorting of the meaning of the Pentagon Papers. How does it feel to be duped? If you don’t feel duped, you don’t understand the situaion.
Tom, thank you for your service, and your experience is exactly like mine. The US easily handled the war in Vietnam (a war that was the north invading the south, not the other way around), and the Democrats abandoned the peace deal afterward, allowing the north to roll thorough the south. The Tet Offensive was one of the worst disasters, for the attackers, ever but the Wlater Cronkite and wannabes made a win out of it. Disgusting. And a preview for the current administration as regards dysfunctional.
You are missing the point even though it’s cherry picked for you.
«… Later, the ARVN defeated the Viet Cong, whose “support” was based on brutal terror, and which was indeed no more than an arm of the NVA. No one cared. »
The point being, no one cared. For the purpose of sleight-of-hand in question it did not matter that this report was just a pile of fashionable nonsense. And eventually was exposed as such. Its very existence did matter. I’m sure at least some dudes from Pentagon were excited to be “vindicated” once the report was proven utter nonsense. What did this achieve?
The Pentagon Papers was a pure case, in a way. These plots allow for upgrades.
For one, consider Morton’s fork with two groups of experts giving incompatible advice. If they behave like the “health advice” people did back from the time of Mark Twain, it’s almost guaranteed to happen.
Washington DC seems to be all horrible Dumbocrats,
protected by a levee of trained parrots in mass media.
WHEN THE LEVEE BREAKS by LED ZEPPELIN
A Republican caravan is coming to town to control the House. Here’s a song for them — the incredible Caravan drum solo by Geyson Nekrutman, I bang on a set of drums as a hobby — this young jazz drummer is incredible: Better than the late, great Buddy Rich, in my opinion. This is a 13-minute drum solo — so you might want to listen to the first three minutes, or to the last three minutes only.
CARAVAN DRUM SOLO:
I want to see that media Washington DC levee break in 2023 with Republicans gaining control of the House, and Elon Musk getting control of Twitter. So my second song for 2023 is When the Levee Breaks, by Led Zeppelin. With a great drum groove by the late, great John Bonham”
I predict the climate will get warmer in 2023,
unless it gets colder
I also predict I will lose weight in 2023,
unless I gain weight.
And WUWT will remain the best climate science website in the world.
I also predict that aliens will land their UFO in Washington DC and demand “Take us to your leader”. After meeting Jumpin’ Joe Biden, they will never return to this planet again.
If Biden was NOT remotely controlled, Jumpin’ Joe would be even more scary. He’s a tough dude. Used to drive a trailer truck. Beat up Corn Pop. We don’t want a tough guy Biden to be a loose cannon in the White House, do we?
Plus, he, from coal mine worker background, fancies himself as having boot-strapped-graduated near top top of his whatever class, on full scholarships, with three degrees; a real academic, who knows his way around Washington, but not anywhere else, such as the U.S. southern border
I think aliens fear Americans would shoot them if they got out of their UFOs, like in the great 1950s science fiction movie: The Day The Earth Stood Still, which was a blockbuster hit movie on several other planets.
To summarize the situation going into 2023:
The climate claim: “We have detected the signal! We are causing it! The warming will be a disaster!”
Me: “That can’t be right.”
2) Any claimed attribution to human causes is obscured in what is happening naturally (on an annual cycle of global-average warming and cooling, for example) and therefore cannot be isolated for reliable determination of cause and effect by any means we have available to us. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
The planet will be fine. Better to accept that we cannot tell the difference between natural and human causes. Just adapt and protect, and come to appreciate the high value of reliable, affordable fuels and electricity.
Those pesky leftists keep whining about the current climate and predicting a coming climate crisis, as they have done since the 1979 Charney Report. Of course, if they were not hysterical about the future climate, they would be hysterical about something else. Leftism is a mental disease. I only allocate 1% to this category because I feel sorry for mentally ill people who fear an invisible, imaginary CO2 boogeyman.
The media are addicted to selling advertising. Anything that generates increased viewer attention raises the price that can be charged to sell you the same stuff that is advertised everywhere.
I was a little nervous when I clicked on that link but it was not X rated, What a disappointment. Viewing the flooded Bangladesh streets in the photo, does anyone know what happens to an EV when it is driven though let’s say 6 to 12 inches of water? That can’t be good.
Some unexpected bad news about EVs in very cold weather, heard from a recently retired auto electrical engineer, who had been working on an EV program. Recent EV winter testing of prototypes and competitor vehicles in Northern Minnesota during the recently very cold week has revealed some disturbing news: EV range on some vehicles was reduced by -50% or more on some vehicles in that extremely cold weather. The engineers were expecting no more than a -35% range reduction.
I had 27 years in product development at the same company and found engineers were always over-optimistic about the new vehicles they were designing. The new designs were better than the last version, and better than competitors last designs too. I would remind the engineers that some competitors were developing new designs in three years, while we were taking four years. So some competitor new vehicle designs will be for sale one year before ours will.
My point is the feedback from engineers currently working on EV programs is completely different than in the past (since the 1970s at least). The more the engineers learn about EVs, the more pessimistic they get. They keep quiet at work, but report this to my recently retired EV engineer friend. They fear the high price, inconvenience when refueling, the unpredictable distance to empty gauge and now the worse than expected cold weather range reduction, will be a disaster for 2026 model EVs they are working on. When engineers are pessimistic about the new products they are designing and testing, that is unprecedented bad news for the auto companies in the future.
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) leaves behind a legacy of climate disinformation, and a small army of pro-industry contrarians.
“Inhofe’s views go far beyond skepticism about the magnitude of the global threat. He’s dismissed global warming as “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people” and called for climate scientists to be criminally prosecuted.”
A man after my own heart! We will miss you, and your speaking truth to power, Senator Inhofe!
J Boles
Thx for the link!
Here is a recent WSJ article and a quote from it: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-all-those-ev-battery-breakthroughs-you-hear-about-arent-breaking-through-11645851613
“While it’s easy to create a battery in the lab that performs well by one measure, the way such results are reported is often a kind of sleight-of-hand, says Ms. Hamilton. Such reports tend to play down the fact that a real-world battery must perform well by at least a half-dozen different measures that matter for electric vehicles. Those include delivering power for acceleration, storing a lot of energy per gram of weight to enable long range, lasting for thousands of charge and discharge cycles, operating in a wide range of temperatures, and not catching fire too easily when damaged.
Also, batteries can’t cost too much, since their price is the primary driver of the cost of electric vehicles.
Even when a promising new battery technology can be made to work by all the measures that matter, another challenge looms just as large: production.”
And for EVs, size is a major issue; not so much for grid-level storage. The more compact the battery, the harder it is to recycle.
Your article also seemed to agree with a Tesla Gigafactory official that Li recycling at scale wouldn.t happen till the 2030’s.
The Biden administration announced on October 13, 2021, it will subsidize the development of up to seven offshore wind systems (never call them farms) on the US East and West coasts, and in the Gulf of Mexico; a total of about 30,000 MW of offshore wind by 2030.
Biden’s offshore wind systems would have an adverse, long-term impact on US electricity wholesale prices, and the prices of all other goods and services, because their expensive electricity would permeate into all economic activities.
The wind turbines would be at least 800-ft-tall, which would need to be located at least 30 miles from shores, to ensure minimal disturbance from night-time strobe lights.
Any commercial fishing areas would be significantly impacted by below-water infrastructures and cables. The low-frequency noise (less than 20 cycles per second, aka infrasound) of the wind turbines would adversely affect marine life, and productivity of fishing areas.
Production: Annual production would be about 30,000 x 8766 h/y x 0.45, capacity factor = 118,341,000 MWh, or 118.3 TWh of variable, intermittent, wind/weather/season-dependent electricity.
The additional wind production would be about 100 x 118.3/4000 = 2.96% of the annual electricity loaded onto US grids.
That US load would increase, due to tens of millions of future electric vehicles and heat pumps.
This would require a large capacity of combined-cycle, gas-turbine plants, CCGTs, to cost-effectively:
1) Counteract the wind output variations, MW, aka grid balancing
2) Fill-in wind production shortfalls, MWh, during any wind lulls
Such lulls occur at random throughout the year, and may last 5 to 7 days in the New England area.
These URLs provide examples of similar wind/solar lull conditions in Germany and New England
Solar electricity increases with the rising sun, is maximal around midday, and decreases with the setting sun.
The Owners of traditional generating plants, to avoid grid disturbances, are required by ISO-NE, the NE grid operator, to reduce their outputs when solar is present, which decreases their annual production, kWh/y, and increases their costs, c/kWh, plus increases wear and tear of their plants, i.e., those services are not “for free”; they are charged to ratepayers.
Electric grids with many solar systems have major midday solar output bulges, that are counteracted by the traditional power plants reducing their outputs. Combined-cycle, gas-turbine plants, CCGTs, perform almost all of the counteracting (aka balancing) of the variable wind and solar outputs.
Those plants have to increase their outputs during the peak hours of late afternoon/early evening, when solar will have gone to sleep until about 8 or 9 AM the next morning.
Battery Systems Electricity Delivery Periods at Rated Capacity
At present, most recently installed battery systems have about 4 hours of electricity delivery at rated capacity, because the battery systems are primarily used to absorb midday solar output bulges.
Battery systems, in use during all of 2015, delivered electricity, on average, for 0.5 hours
Battery systems, in use during all of 2018, delivered electricity, on average, for 2.4 hours
Battery systems, in use during all of 2019, delivered electricity, on average, for 3.2 hours
The increase in energy-delivery duration is required, because the main function of battery systems is to store excess wind and store midday solar output bulges. They discharge about 80% of the stored electricity during the peak hours of late afternoon/early evening; the other 20% are round-trip battery system losses. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43775
walterr070
January 1, 2023 8:19 am
My predictions for this year are:
2023 will end up warm again but will probably not break the 2016 record.
The blame of climate change on every natural weather event will continue to gain more attention; so much to the point where it may be easier for us to start convincing people to think more reasonably.
The net zero failures in the West will also gain a lot of attention. However given the mild winter Europe is having, I would say we shouldn’t expect much more this year. When a freezing cold winter hits Europe again, that’s when the Net Zero agenda will start taking damage.
All in all, I think it will be a better year for us. The recent Twitter takeover was a god send and will help us with all of what I mentioned above.
Happy New Year everyone! I wish everyone a happy 2023.
Since last year was only 7th warmest ever according to the Scientologists, there is a ways for them to go although I imagine the adjustment bureau is working hard on it
Steve Oregon
January 1, 2023 8:21 am
The year 2023. Abundant, low cost energy and fuel is delivered to the populous world wide.
Mutually assured prosperity has arrived for most of the planet with memories of the concocted climate crisis fading into the history’s heap of whoppers.
Unfortunately what should be has been postponed indefinitely because faulty people with names conspire and stand in the way of the progress that humanity deserves.
curmudge1
January 1, 2023 8:43 am
Happy New Year to all.
Say, does anyone recall or have saved an essay from some years ago, maybe by Matt Ridley or Christopher Monckton, something about some questions the writer would like to have answered by the climate alarmists or activists? Something like that… a starting point to have a reasonable discussion with those who think Anthropogenic Global Warming is enough to be worried about.
I just read a brief online column, 4 questions to ask climate change alarmists, and it reminded me of something I read several years ago. No success with google search as of yet.
If you visit JoNova (there’s a direct link above, or just do joannenova.com.au), go the to post that says “Saturday Open Thread”. There, go down to comment number 20.2, by a person using the handle “Lance”. The post lists four questions, and then links to an article. It may not be what you are looking for, but it is a place to start.
I hope that helps to some extent,
Vlad
DMacKenzie
January 1, 2023 10:02 am
pointing out that the NSIDC sea ice cover graph (search “NSIDC daily” and click on 2022) against north polar temperatures did not make sense at year end. Something wrong with the ice calcs again ?
This is a very long piece. Try reading it.
Below is the first sentence on the page about Anthony Watts.
“ . . . an American blogger who runs Watts Up With That?, a popular climate change denial blog that opposes the scientific consensus on climate change.”
Any person that questions anything regarding “the consensus” will be deemed “a anthropogenic climate change denier”.
Try some others, if you have a few minutes.
So, I will never send a halfpenny to Wikipedia unless there is a significant cleansing of all the material that distorts the discussion of Earth’s climate and smears the people that exhibit real characteristics of science.
I remember reading some time back about some joker by the name of Connolly who had taken it upon himself to over- edit every item of content about climate on Wikipedia to turn it into an alarmist propaganda piece.
I have informed them that I will not donate as long as they have biased articles. I received an answer denying bias. “There are none so blind as those who will not see.”
ResourceGuy
January 1, 2023 10:55 am
Might as well be happy and healthy while watching Net Zero Inc. fail….
It looks like the psychologists are trying to figure out how to brainwash the public better about the benign gas, CO2. Apparently, past efforts to scare people are not getting the results they want.
“Given the growing threat from climate change and the related risk of escalating disasters including extreme weather events, immediate risks of destruction and exacerbation of poverty, disease and food insecurity, and human displacement, it becomes more imperative each day to better understand the psychology of human action and inaction in order to foster behavioral changes to secure greater safety and predictability.”
end excerpt
The Human-caused Climate Change Propagandists are working overtime trying to convince the public that they should be very afraid of CO2.
Ireneusz Palmowski
January 2, 2023 12:46 am
A stationary low with snowfall has formed over Colorado. On the outskirts of this low, secondary low centers are forming, one of the cold fronts will reach Texas and pull air from the Gulf of Mexico.
Allan MacRae
January 2, 2023 5:54 am
My 1Jan2023 proposal to Steve Kirsch re Covid-19 toxic vaxxes – remedial measures: Subject: IMPORTANT – A BETTER IDEA: What we need right now is a voluntary, inexpensive, effective treatment protocol Hi Steve Kirsch, The Covid-19 vaxxes are highly toxic and ineffective. We should never vaccinate into an pandemic because the vaccines will cause variants – basic Darwin biology – in the same way that antibiotics can cause antibiotic-resistant bacteria. What we need most right now is a voluntary, inexpensive, effective, over-the-counter treatment protocol for Covid-19 and the vaxx-injured, who we can assume includes everyone who is vaxxed for Covid-19. This will SAVE LIVES! We could start this program in Florida and Alberta and it will grow. DeSantis is competent and so is our new Alberta Premier. Regards, Allan MacRae https://energy-experts-international.com/ _______________ Emailed to the Alberta Cabinet and MLA’s on 8Jan2021: [excerpt – Note I should have said “under 130”] “The Covid-19 vaccine developments were rushed and are not proven safe or effective and should NOT be taken, especially by the low-risk population – those under-65 or recovered from Covid-19. The two experimental Covid-19 vaccines that contain mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) are especially risky – due to unknown future side-effects, the risk-to-reward is far too high for the low-risk group.” ON PREDICTIONS “The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.” (Ref. CorrectPredictions.ca) What constitutes the “best” prediction? The best prediction is the earliest AND the most accurate description of future events. This best prediction of important consequences SHOULD enable society to properly plan for the future and avoid major costly and destructive errors. Unfortunately , in the case of both the Climate and Covid scams, correct early predictions of disastrous outcomes by me and others were ignored, and society was manipulated by a multi-billion dollar fear-driven propaganda campaign that squandered trillions of dollars and millions of lives. The Climate and Covid scams were promoted by scoundrels and imbeciles – the scoundrels, the promoters of these scams, knew they were lying; the imbeciles believed them – wolves stampeding the sheep. The Leninist/Goebbels fear-based propaganda tactics used by the authorities to enforce the Climate and Covid scams were the same, and the same totalitarian “usual suspects” supported both scams and even linked them”, saying “To solve Covid we must solve Climate” – utter nonsense . Most academics are reluctant to make predictions, because predictions are high-risk and they don’t want to be wrong. Academics typically write about the past, and in this regard they often, but not always, exhibit 20:20 hindsight. However, their observations are of limited value in developing policy, because they are too late – the disasters had already occurred. We are starting to see the beginning of a future flood of academic papers condemning in hindsight the Climate and Covid scams, now that the damage of these scams has become obvious and the risk of speaking out has diminished. These latecomers may help to correct current errors, but unfortunately, most of the damage has already been done. Some say “Better late than never”, to which I counter “Where were you when we needed you?” In too many cases, they were on the side of the scammers, who vilified those of us who, years earlier, made the correct calls against these egregious scams. In summary, their contributions were not helpful, but were, in total, destructive. The lesson here is that policy makers should be consulting the “best” predictors, the earliest and most accurate, if they hope to avoid the grievous errors of recent decades, that have wasted trillions of dollars and cost many millions of lives.
Allan MacRae
January 2, 2023 6:20 am
EPILOGUE
Happy New Year everyone!
We’ve published everything we needed to say long ago – our condemnation of the Climate-and-Green-Energy scam dates from Nov2002.
My condemnation of the Covid-19 Lockdowns-and-“Vaccines” scam dates from 21Mar2020.
Best regards to all, Allan MacRae SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT “The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.” by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc. (Eng.), M.Eng., October 20, 2021. Update December 24, 2022 https://CorrectOredictions.ca/ Our scientific predictions on both Climate and Covid are infinitely more accurate than the mainstream narratives, which have been false and baselessly alarmist to date.
BACKGROUND
As described in the above paper, My co-authors and I correctly identified the Climate-and-Green-Energy fraud in 2002, as follows: The PEGG, November 2002 1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.” 2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.” – by Sallie Baliunas (Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian), Tim Patterson (Paleoclimatologist, Carleton U), Allan MacRae (Professional Engineer, retired (Queen’s U, U of Alberta)
I correctly identified the destructive–and-ineffective Covid-19 Lockdown scam in Feb2020 and published in Mar2020.
21March2020 LET’S CONSIDER AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH: Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five. This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.
Six months later world experts published the ~same recommendations in the Great Barrington Declaration.
I advised our Alberta and Federal governments on 8Jan2021 that the Covid-19 “Vaccines” were TOXIC AND INEFFECTIVE and should not be deployed and that also proved correct. That was the second part of the Covid-19 scam – to peddle billions of dollars of toxic, ineffective injections that have now killed or harmed many more people than the Covid-19 virus.
I emailed to the Alberta government, other politicians and media on 8Jan2021:
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS RE COVID-19
There is no real Covid-19 pandemic. Covid-19 was only dangerous to the very elderly and infirm, and is similar in average mortality to other seasonal flu’s of recent decades.
The Covid-19 PCR test is not fit-for-purpose and provides many false positives.
Routine testing of asymptomatic people is a waste of resources and drives erroneous policies including lockdowns.
The Covid-19 lockdowns were never effective or justified. Harm done by the lockdowns exceeds by 10 to 100 times the harm from Covid-19. End all lockdowns now and do not lockdown again.
Simple, inexpensive treatments are known to save lives – Vitamin D, Ivermectin etc. Why are these treatments not being widely recommended and implemented by Alberta authorities?
The increase in deaths of the elderly in Winter is a well-established seasonal phenomenon. “Excess Winter Deaths” in the four Winter months routinely average about 100,000 per year in the USA and about 10,000 per year in Canada, as described on our 2015 summary of Excess Winter Mortality that includes the landmark Lancet study.
The Covid-19 vaccine developments were rushed and are not proven safe or effective and should NOT be taken, especially by the low-risk population – those under-65 or recovered from Covid-19. The two experimental Covid-19 vaccines that contain mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) are especially risky – due to unknown future side-effects, the risk-to-reward is far too high for the low-risk group.
_________________________________
niceguy12345
January 4, 2023 9:56 pm
Politics, lobbying and powerful ideologic preferences are what have brought the term “renewable” into vogue in the first place. This also means that what’s included as renewable differs from place to place. California specifically excludes large hydro power but includes small hydropower stations. Not because large hydro emits more carbon or doesn’t rely on the renewing resource of rain but rather because California policymakers decided dams posed too great an ecologic impact and didn’t want to prioritize building more large dams. In other places, renewables includes large hydro. The fact that the definition of what’s renewable varies from place to place, contributes to confusion and lack of clarity. When folks in California hear that there are Canadian provinces running almost entirely on renewable energy, they may think that means they’ve succeeded in building out lots of wind and solar. In fact, it’s predominantly large hydro—which isn’t counted as “renewable” in California.
Nuclear’s Contributions to Clean Energy are Sidelined
The biggest problem by far with using the term renewable, however, is that it is invariably defined to exclude nuclear power. This causes the entire nuclear industry—which for decades has produced more clean energy than all other low-carbon sources combined—to be discounted and even sometimes excluded. Not surprising since nuclear has long been maligned and even demonized. Even so, the omission of nuclear as a renewable energy source, whether intentional or not, causes significant problems for those trying to use good data to address climate change.
Having endured the Christmas blizzard here in Buffalo NY, I haven’t heard how our wind turbines on Lake Erie functioned. In general, do wind turbines have to be shut down during a blizzard or hurricane, or can they operate unimpaired during strong winds?
niceguy12345
January 5, 2023 6:50 pm
Interesting stuff:
Justice Minister Yariv Levin on Wednesday announced a wide-ranging and highly controversial overhaul of Israel’s judicial and legal system which, if enacted, would amount to arguably the most drastic changes ever to Israel’s system of government.
The changes set out by Levin during a press conference at the Knesset would severely limit the authority of the High Court of Justice, give the government control over the judicial selection committee, and significantly limit the authority of government legal advisers.
The justice minister, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, claimed that judicial activism had ruined public trust in the legal system and made it impossible for governments to rule effectively.
Happy new year everyone.
Another orbit completed, celebrate perihelion day on 4th January.
Good thing those pesky aliens did not land their UFO in Washington DC, and demand: “Take us to your leader”
That would have been embarrassing.
Imagine a bald John Kerry with big eyes.
He would look a lot more intelligent
Kerry actually voted for the alien invasion before he voted against it.
GOP campaigned against being invaded then voted for
Happy New Year, Eric! Thank you for all you do here! I am grateful.
And best wishes to all in the WUWT blogosphere! The truth will out. We shall overcome some day!
Eric Worrall is among the best writers here and is also the most prolific writer here. When you multiply the high quality of his articles by the high quantity of his articles, Eric W. was the best WUWT author in 2022.
I think the website should be renamed: “WUWT, featuring Eric Worrall.” (And he didn’t pay me a dollar to write that, did you cousin Eric? … that was a joke, in case you didn’t notice.)
I hope the leftists in Washington DC do not ruin 2023 ..
as much as they ruined 2021 and 2022 !
They already have until September of 2023, since the omnibus funds the federal government until then. That also gives them 9 months to decide what parts of the government they continue to fund after the House shuts down more borrowing, AND the propaganda campaign they will wage when shutting down the areas they will for the most negative effect on actual tax paying citizens. Remember the FIRST department Clinton shut down was the National Parks, locking all the gates, so that the vacationing taxpayers would be the most inconvenienced. The times change, but the Democrat playbook remains the same.
A strong storm is developing over southern California and will move northeast. Intense snowstorms may occur on the western side of the storm and tornadoes on the eastern side.
There is a chance for flowers in Death Valley.
First tornado’s of 2023 likely to show here:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlT0UyqWQAA7LMS?format=jpg&name=medium
It is now raining heavily in Las Vegas.
It must be that Category 4 Atmospheric River coming in from the Pacific Ocean.
That’s how it was described in the Media the other day: Category 4. These climate alarmists never give up. They are always looking for more ways to scare the public.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-108.89,33.90,264
At least that is Pacific Ocean air and not arctic air.
The jet stream is keeping us warm for the moment.
Atmospheric River Mufasa coming quick on the heels of Category 13 Breeze Ralph
And just after the polar “Bomb Cyclone”. Lord have mercy!
Proof of climate change
Vegas weathermen claim:
“It’s worse than we thought possible.
Obviously caused by climate change.
Someday Las Vegas will get two feet of snow,
just like the old 1930s Snow Bowl days”
Rising water levels in lake Mead proof of catastrophic climate change – scientists say. 😉
Slightly off topic:
Ireneusz
– Ireneusz is a Polish male given name that comes from the Greek eirenaios.
I’m half Polish and my wife is 100% Greek.
We can’t figure out how to pronounce your name.
Could you teach us in a very simple way?
(We are both retired professional simpletons)
I’m guessing something like
Eer ren NAY oosh
Almost right.
Ee-re-ne-oosh
Thanks. You can listen to the pronunciation on Audio. I provide the link. Happy New Year. Give my best regards to your spouse.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Ireneusz
In Australia you would always be addressed as “mate”, or when someone wanted to make a point about something, they would open with “maaate”.
How about “Mister I?”
I’ll never remember the correct way
We are enjoying a predicted 2 feet of global warming here on Cedar mountain in southwestern Utah. (Above where the circled 35 is.) We are at 8600 ft. elevation. It has been 27 degrees since 6:30 this morning and snowing around an inch an hour, heavy wet snow.
I will be enjoying the global warming as I blow it from my driveways SOON. I need to blow before the new global warming is higher then the blower opening, about 18 inches, which with the wind, is already the case in a few drifted areas.
I know it’s hard to stay current, but it’s not global warming or even Climate Change ™ anymore. It’s global heating.
That was last week.
This week it’s “Climate Breakdown”,
and this is the theme song:
Grace Jones – Breakdown [ Live ] 80’s – YouTube
I submitted a request for next week:
“Climate Malarkey”.
SEQUENCE STRATIGRAPHY. Why are Geologists a lot more skeptical about CAGW claims than the general population? In the early 1970’s, aided by a great increase in offshore seismic data, EXXON geologists and geophysicists realized that stratigraphic profiles around the world tended to correlate. This EXXON Team, led by Peter Vail, began utilizing the predictive ability of the migration of the target depositional environment, including both source rocks and trap rocks, to enhance petroleum exploration. There was a rapid realization that sea level fluctuated up and down in grand cycles, some regular and some not, based on global temperatures, ie, hotter causes less glacial ice accumulation on land masses and the sea level goes up, colder and glacial ice accumulates on land masses and sea level goes down. Imagine, grand sea level variance, say 40 meters higher than now, and 140 meters lower than now, and no human influence. Every petroleum exploration effort in the world now utilizes the predictive ability of Sequence Stratigraphy in generative exploration, which is a verification fact that the CAGW nonsense is totally lacking. Yes, it is just like they say “EXXON KNEW!”.
Exxon Knew because they had better scientists than the second-rate cohort populating the MET office ranks. And they knew it when academia was still twiddling their thumbs.
Adam Smith knew in 1776 with Wealth of Nations that the enlightened self-interest of individuals seeking profit serve the interests of all men.
In a perverse way, the same principle is illuminated by the unenlightened corrupt self-interest of the climastrology Gang Green. Rather than seeking to serve others and profit in the process, they seek to serve a political agenda which profits them at the expense of the common man.
Academia was predicting global warming from CO2 since the late 1950s, such as by oceanographer Roger Revelle and his team members.
The 1979 Charney Report put some numbers down (wild guessed an ECS) which magically converted AGW into CAGW.
And the CAGW hoax has continued ever since. The IPCC didn’t bother changing the Charney Report wild guess from 1988 until a few years ago, when they narrowed the range by deleting the more reasonable low end of the old Charney ECS. ( +1.5 degrees C. was not scary enough — and the IPCC could not tolerate that ! )
If you’re going to wild guess ECS, why not change the range arbitrarily any time you feel like it?
I personally think the IPCC should have added some decimal places, such as +2.145 to 4.528 degrees C. More decimal places = more scientific sounding (I remember that from my science courses when getting my BS degree, You can’t have too many decimal places, they taught us, or at least someone in the class said that, if not a professor.)
Academic work on the foundations of the “greenhouse” effect began in the early 1800’s by Fourier and later with gaseous heat absorption of water and carbon dioxide studied by John Tyndall and others. Arrhenius, was also prominent in this field around 1900.
Back then, warming was accepted as being beneficial.
Here’s a synopsis of the history of the topic.
https://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2015/08/who-first-coined-the-term-greenhouse-effect/
i WAS REFERRING TO THE PERIOD WHEN GREENHOUSE WARMING BECAME BAD NEWS.
SECOND rate????
When I was in school in the late 60s, early 70s industry recruiters visited the engineering campus every spring and scooped up the cream of the crop. It was not unusual for the best and brightest to have jobs in private industry lined up as juniors – often with tuition and expenses covered by future employers. Those less talented who didn’t drop out mostly ended up with government jobs of stayed in school and got PhDs.
Not quite true Ed, following is exactly what Exxon knew in 1982 from their own internal memo. Notice that most of the graphs and reference are to NOAA and university studies. Exxon’s engineering department knew how to build cat-crackers and hydro-treaters and their marketing department knew how to outsell the other sisters. Climate was academic hearsay combined with sales projections for them.
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/Global/Files/climate-change/media-reported-documents/03_1982-Exxon-Primer-on-CO2-Greenhouse-Effect.pdf
“Climate was academic hearsay combined with sales projections for them.”
This is true.
And Climate is *still* academic hearsay. Nothing has changed since 1982.
A fun fact: “Exxon knew!!1” plot was a reuse of “Pentagon knew!!1” plot. Which may be the “official” start of New Deal 2.0 State, no less.
«The case that created the modern American system of government by leak was the Pentagon Papers case, in which McNamara’s policy shop at DoD (ironically, the ancestor of Douglas Feith’s much-maligned operation) wrote a study of Vietnam which revealed that the Viet Cong was not a North Vietnamese puppet, had the support of the Vietnamese people, and could never be defeated militarily, especially not by the corrupt and incompetent ARVN. The Joint Chiefs yawned. Daniel Ellsberg quite illegally leaked his own department’s work to the Times, which used it quite effectively to amaze the public—which had no idea that Washington was a place in which the Defense Department might well employ whole nests of pro-VC intellectuals, and regarded the study as a declaration against interest. In the public’s mind, the Pentagon was one thing. The fact that it was pursuing a war that its own experts had decided was unwinnable was permanently fatal to its credibility.» (An Open Letter to Open-Minded Progressives, Chapter 9).
Yeah, except those experts were wrong, and/or are mischaracterized by you. The U.S. did defeat the North Vietnamese to the point that the North Vietnamese signed the Paris Peace Accord to end the war.
So anyone who said it wasn’t possible was wrong. Not that many said it was impossible, btw. The Pentagon Papers were assessments that took place over many years, by many people, with many different opinions, and here you are trying to make them out like the definitive source on the Vietnam war.
Here’s a definitive source for what went on during the Vietnam war:
https://www.amazon.com/Stolen-Valor-Vietnam-Generation-History/dp/096670360X
Stolen Valor : How the Vietnam Generation Was Robbed of Its Heroes and Its History
And here you are trying to rob us of our history again.
It wasn’t the U.S. military’s fault that South Vietnam finally fell. It was the fault of leftwing, anti-war, appeaser politicians like current Trafficer-in-Chief, Joe Biden, who threw the South Vietnamese to the Wolves by refusing to leave American troops in South Vietnam after the peace agreement was signed, and then failing to come to the aid of South Vietnam after North Vietnam violated the peace agreement and again attacked South Vietnam.
The United States was legally and morally obligated to go to South Vietnam’s aid, but the leftwing appeasers would have none of it and told South Vietnam to go to hell. The U.S. military had nothing to do with South Vietnam falling. They were not even involved at the time. It was all the leftwing politicians doing.
The Trafficer-in-Chief is literally responsible for the death and displacement of *millions* of innocent people in Vietnam and millions more during the rest of his horrible political career.
I ended up going to Vietnam because I couldn’t believe the things I was reading about the war in the U.S. newspapers. Every day there was another horror story about how the American troops were being beaten badly in battle and were barely hanging on by a fingernail in Vietnam.
I said to myself, this can’t be true. If it is true, then my whole worldview is wrong. So I had to go see if my whole worldview was wrong and I volunteered to be transfered to Vietnam.
When I got to Vietnam, I realized I had been lied to by the American press. American troops had everything well under control, and this was right after the North Vietnamese Tet Offensive of 1968, where the North Vietnamese were beaten badly, and the communist terrorists living in South Vietnam, the Viet Cong, were virtually wiped out as a fighting organization. The Leftwing American press describe the Tet Offensive as a great defeat for Americans! That’s how off-the-mark their reporting was.
That was the time when I learned not to trust the Leftwing Media. I saw that they lie for political purposes and are not to be trusted or believed and one should be skeptical of everything they say. The truth is not in them.
And they are still lying now. One good example is the distorting of the meaning of the Pentagon Papers. How does it feel to be duped? If you don’t feel duped, you don’t understand the situaion.
Tom, thank you for your service, and your experience is exactly like mine. The US easily handled the war in Vietnam (a war that was the north invading the south, not the other way around), and the Democrats abandoned the peace deal afterward, allowing the north to roll thorough the south. The Tet Offensive was one of the worst disasters, for the attackers, ever but the Wlater Cronkite and wannabes made a win out of it. Disgusting. And a preview for the current administration as regards dysfunctional.
You are missing the point even though it’s cherry picked for you.
«… Later, the ARVN defeated the Viet Cong, whose “support” was based on brutal terror, and which was indeed no more than an arm of the NVA. No one cared. »
The point being, no one cared. For the purpose of sleight-of-hand in question it did not matter that this report was just a pile of fashionable nonsense. And eventually was exposed as such. Its very existence did matter. I’m sure at least some dudes from Pentagon were excited to be “vindicated” once the report was proven utter nonsense. What did this achieve?
The Pentagon Papers was a pure case, in a way. These plots allow for upgrades.
For one, consider Morton’s fork with two groups of experts giving incompatible advice. If they behave like the “health advice” people did back from the time of Mark Twain, it’s almost guaranteed to happen.
Happy New Year. Don’t worry, be happy.
Bobby McFerrin – Don’t Worry Be Happy (Official Music Video) – YouTube
35 years later he’s still with us, not worried, still happy.
I propose two different songs for 2023.
Washington DC seems to be all horrible Dumbocrats,
protected by a levee of trained parrots in mass media.
WHEN THE LEVEE BREAKS by LED ZEPPELIN
A Republican caravan is coming to town to control the House. Here’s a song for them — the incredible Caravan drum solo by Geyson Nekrutman, I bang on a set of drums as a hobby — this young jazz drummer is incredible: Better than the late, great Buddy Rich, in my opinion. This is a 13-minute drum solo — so you might want to listen to the first three minutes, or to the last three minutes only.
Greyson Nekrutman Plays “Caravan” (Massive Drum Solo) – YouTube
CARAVAN DRUM SOLO:
I want to see that media Washington DC levee break in 2023 with Republicans gaining control of the House, and Elon Musk getting control of Twitter. So my second song for 2023 is When the Levee Breaks, by Led Zeppelin. With a great drum groove by the late, great John Bonham”
When the Levee Breaks (Remaster) – YouTube
Happy New Year everyone. May 2023 be a better year than 2022.
The storm will reach Texas in two days, where the threat of tornadoes will increase.
A pretty picture! How does it go NE from CA and hit TX?
Here in WV we have warm, sunny weather and will sit out in the yard this afternoon. Making up for Christmas Eve’s zero F.
See my https://www.cfact.org/2022/12/30/blackouts-for-christmas-a-sick-grid-gift/
In any case I predict grid sickness will get more attention this year.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/01/02/0600Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-108.05,37.49,1786
That shows the CA flow as SSE, not NE.
A strong front will pass over Texas.
The center of the low will head northeast.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/01/02/0600Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-108.05,37.49,1786/loc=-111.079,39.329
Look at convection.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/01/02/2300Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=cape/orthographic=-108.05,37.49,1125
Looks like the center might miss TX.
The center of the low is rapidly moving into Utah.
More moisture for our drought in Colorado.
Global warming is amazing in that it can cause drought and abundance of water at the same time.
Never forget that it is the Magic Molecule.
I predict the climate will get warmer in 2023,
unless it gets colder
I also predict I will lose weight in 2023,
unless I gain weight.
And WUWT will remain the best climate science website in the world.
I also predict that aliens will land their UFO in Washington DC and demand “Take us to your leader”. After meeting Jumpin’ Joe Biden, they will never return to this planet again.
If only we knew who our actual leader is. We need Toto to pull back the curtain on the Great and Powerful Oz.
I predict that 2023 will include some Republican attempts to show that The Big Guy is remotely controlled from Tian An Men Square.
If Biden was NOT remotely controlled, Jumpin’ Joe would be even more scary. He’s a tough dude. Used to drive a trailer truck. Beat up Corn Pop. We don’t want a tough guy Biden to be a loose cannon in the White House, do we?
Plus, he, from coal mine worker background, fancies himself as having boot-strapped-graduated near top top of his whatever class, on full scholarships, with three degrees; a real academic, who knows his way around Washington, but not anywhere else, such as the U.S. southern border
Biden doesn’t have to go to the border. He can see it all on television.
What is happening at the border is what Biden wants to have happen at the border.
Biden hates white people. Biden has a big white-gulit complex. Biden thinks the solution to evil white men is to outnumber them with people of color.
That’s what Biden is doing, and of course, he thinks the people of color will vote for him if given the chance, and he’s probably correct.
That’s the Biden plan: Delute the influence of evil white people.
Biden doesn’t consider himself to be one of the evil white people. He’s the good guy going after the evil ones.
Perhaps the World Economic Forum, in a drive to increase its diversity, will include working class and middle class people, as well as Uyghurs.
Ve in ze verld aykonomeek forum are not innerested in deevares viewpoints, only deevares chenderz. Außerdem, zose types of deplorables tend to breed.
You are cancelled, mister skizzor.
If they do meet Biden they will probably conclude that the human race needs to be exterminated.
I think aliens fear Americans would shoot them if they got out of their UFOs, like in the great 1950s science fiction movie: The Day The Earth Stood Still, which was a blockbuster hit movie on several other planets.
https://youtu.be/lLZQz26-kms
Isn’t it always? «Summarizing, Britain’s climate is becoming very hot, very cold, very wet and very dry. All at the same time.» (Tony Heller)
Unless the guy behind the curtain comes out instead.
From the terrified Damian Carrington…
“”2022: another mile on the ‘highway to climate hell’
…
the climate crisis is bleaker than it has ever been.””
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/30/environmental-review-of-2022-another-mile-on-the-highway-to-climate-hell
To those not crippled by an imaginary anxiety a very happy new year
Let’s send him flowers and wishes for a speedy recovery.
Let’s leave him to his self-induced he’ll
Happy New Year to all out there.
To summarize the situation going into 2023:
The climate claim: “We have detected the signal! We are causing it! The warming will be a disaster!”
Me: “That can’t be right.”
1) Watch from space on the CO2 band. It’s not a radiative “trap” as an end result.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G16&band=16&length=12
2) Any claimed attribution to human causes is obscured in what is happening naturally (on an annual cycle of global-average warming and cooling, for example) and therefore cannot be isolated for reliable determination of cause and effect by any means we have available to us.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
The planet will be fine. Better to accept that we cannot tell the difference between natural and human causes. Just adapt and protect, and come to appreciate the high value of reliable, affordable fuels and electricity.
Beautiful.
Let’s make the Heartland Climate Conference in Orlando in February 23-25 very well attended.
https://www.heartland.org/events/events/iccc-15
Global warming is 99% good news and 1% bad news
The 99% good news:
Today’s climate is the best climate for humans and animals in 5,000 years
Today’s climate is the best climate for C3 plants (90% of 300,000 species) in millions of years
Greening of our planet from more CO2 (NASA Vegetation Index)
Faster plant growth from more CO2 in the air
And most important, by far, women are wearing less clothing as the climate warms.
At the link below is scientific proof of that trend, which occupies 97% of my research hours: The new January 2023 Global Warming Fashion Show
Global Warming Fashion Show (onionbloggle2012.blogspot.com)
The 1% bad news:
Those pesky leftists keep whining about the current climate and predicting a coming climate crisis, as they have done since the 1979 Charney Report. Of course, if they were not hysterical about the future climate, they would be hysterical about something else. Leftism is a mental disease. I only allocate 1% to this category because I feel sorry for mentally ill people who fear an invisible, imaginary CO2 boogeyman.
The media is addicted to climate pornography.
The media ARE addicted…
Happy New Year anyway.
The media are addicted to selling advertising. Anything that generates increased viewer attention raises the price that can be charged to sell you the same stuff that is advertised everywhere.
The Media are addicted to a leftwing political agenda.
I was a little nervous when I clicked on that link but it was not X rated, What a disappointment. Viewing the flooded Bangladesh streets in the photo, does anyone know what happens to an EV when it is driven though let’s say 6 to 12 inches of water? That can’t be good.
Some unexpected bad news about EVs in very cold weather, heard from a recently retired auto electrical engineer, who had been working on an EV program. Recent EV winter testing of prototypes and competitor vehicles in Northern Minnesota during the recently very cold week has revealed some disturbing news: EV range on some vehicles was reduced by -50% or more on some vehicles in that extremely cold weather. The engineers were expecting no more than a -35% range reduction.
I had 27 years in product development at the same company and found engineers were always over-optimistic about the new vehicles they were designing. The new designs were better than the last version, and better than competitors last designs too. I would remind the engineers that some competitors were developing new designs in three years, while we were taking four years. So some competitor new vehicle designs will be for sale one year before ours will.
My point is the feedback from engineers currently working on EV programs is completely different than in the past (since the 1970s at least). The more the engineers learn about EVs, the more pessimistic they get. They keep quiet at work, but report this to my recently retired EV engineer friend. They fear the high price, inconvenience when refueling, the unpredictable distance to empty gauge and now the worse than expected cold weather range reduction, will be a disaster for 2026 model EVs they are working on. When engineers are pessimistic about the new products they are designing and testing, that is unprecedented bad news for the auto companies in the future.
An interesting article about an early hybrid:
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/there-s-a-massive-antarctic-exploration-vehicle-lost-somewhere-at-the-bottom-of-the-world?utm_source=pocket-newtab
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/jim-inhofe-retire-climate-denial_n_63a4c721e4b0d6f0b9ec07ec
Farewell To The Senate’s Biggest Climate Denier
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) leaves behind a legacy of climate disinformation, and a small army of pro-industry contrarians.
“Inhofe’s views go far beyond skepticism about the magnitude of the global threat. He’s dismissed global warming as “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people” and called for climate scientists to be criminally prosecuted.”
A man after my own heart! We will miss you, and your speaking truth to power, Senator Inhofe!
Our last true skeptic in the U.S. Senate.
Meanwhile, the D+R lame duck Congress cannot
laundersend cash to Ukraine fast enough (thnx to The Gateway Pundit):I think we should be hearing more complaints from Republicans about Trafficker-in-Chief, Joe Biden bailing out the Unions to the tune of $35 billion.
I haven’t heard one complaint about this from Republicans.
Unions turn out the vote for Biden and Biden pays them off with $35 billion.
Dead silence — which implies both sides profit from the gravy train.
Interesting article – recycle lithium batts : Lithium costs a lot of money—so why aren’t we recycling lithium batteries? | Ars Technica
J Boles
Thx for the link!
Here is a recent WSJ article and a quote from it:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-all-those-ev-battery-breakthroughs-you-hear-about-arent-breaking-through-11645851613
“While it’s easy to create a battery in the lab that performs well by one measure, the way such results are reported is often a kind of sleight-of-hand, says Ms. Hamilton. Such reports tend to play down the fact that a real-world battery must perform well by at least a half-dozen different measures that matter for electric vehicles. Those include delivering power for acceleration, storing a lot of energy per gram of weight to enable long range, lasting for thousands of charge and discharge cycles, operating in a wide range of temperatures, and not catching fire too easily when damaged.
Also, batteries can’t cost too much, since their price is the primary driver of the cost of electric vehicles.
Even when a promising new battery technology can be made to work by all the measures that matter, another challenge looms just as large: production.”
And for EVs, size is a major issue; not so much for grid-level storage. The more compact the battery, the harder it is to recycle.
Your article also seemed to agree with a Tesla Gigafactory official that Li recycling at scale wouldn.t happen till the 2030’s.
Sounds sort of like hydrogen fusion.
EXCERPT FROM:
BIDEN 30,000 MW OFFSHORE WIND SYSTEMS BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-offshore-wind-systems-by-2030-a-total-fantasy
The Biden administration announced on October 13, 2021, it will subsidize the development of up to seven offshore wind systems (never call them farms) on the US East and West coasts, and in the Gulf of Mexico; a total of about 30,000 MW of offshore wind by 2030.
Biden’s offshore wind systems would have an adverse, long-term impact on US electricity wholesale prices, and the prices of all other goods and services, because their expensive electricity would permeate into all economic activities.
The wind turbines would be at least 800-ft-tall, which would need to be located at least 30 miles from shores, to ensure minimal disturbance from night-time strobe lights.
Any commercial fishing areas would be significantly impacted by below-water infrastructures and cables. The low-frequency noise (less than 20 cycles per second, aka infrasound) of the wind turbines would adversely affect marine life, and productivity of fishing areas.
Production: Annual production would be about 30,000 x 8766 h/y x 0.45, capacity factor = 118,341,000 MWh, or 118.3 TWh of variable, intermittent, wind/weather/season-dependent electricity.
The additional wind production would be about 100 x 118.3/4000 = 2.96% of the annual electricity loaded onto US grids.
That US load would increase, due to tens of millions of future electric vehicles and heat pumps.
This would require a large capacity of combined-cycle, gas-turbine plants, CCGTs, to cost-effectively:
1) Counteract the wind output variations, MW, aka grid balancing
2) Fill-in wind production shortfalls, MWh, during any wind lulls
Such lulls occur at random throughout the year, and may last 5 to 7 days in the New England area.
These URLs provide examples of similar wind/solar lull conditions in Germany and New England
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/analysis-of-a-6-day-lull-of-wind-and-solar-during-summer-in-new
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-plus-solar-plus-storage-in-new-england
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-lulls-energy-storage-in-germany
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/playing-russian-roulette-with-reliable-electricity-service-to-new
EXCERPT from:
BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital-costs-losses-and-aging
This article has nine parts
Solar electricity increases with the rising sun, is maximal around midday, and decreases with the setting sun.
The Owners of traditional generating plants, to avoid grid disturbances, are required by ISO-NE, the NE grid operator, to reduce their outputs when solar is present, which decreases their annual production, kWh/y, and increases their costs, c/kWh, plus increases wear and tear of their plants, i.e., those services are not “for free”; they are charged to ratepayers.
Electric grids with many solar systems have major midday solar output bulges, that are counteracted by the traditional power plants reducing their outputs. Combined-cycle, gas-turbine plants, CCGTs, perform almost all of the counteracting (aka balancing) of the variable wind and solar outputs.
Those plants have to increase their outputs during the peak hours of late afternoon/early evening, when solar will have gone to sleep until about 8 or 9 AM the next morning.
Battery Systems Electricity Delivery Periods at Rated Capacity
At present, most recently installed battery systems have about 4 hours of electricity delivery at rated capacity, because the battery systems are primarily used to absorb midday solar output bulges.
Battery systems, in use during all of 2015, delivered electricity, on average, for 0.5 hours
Battery systems, in use during all of 2018, delivered electricity, on average, for 2.4 hours
Battery systems, in use during all of 2019, delivered electricity, on average, for 3.2 hours
The increase in energy-delivery duration is required, because the main function of battery systems is to store excess wind and store midday solar output bulges. They discharge about 80% of the stored electricity during the peak hours of late afternoon/early evening; the other 20% are round-trip battery system losses.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43775
My predictions for this year are:
2023 will end up warm again but will probably not break the 2016 record.
The blame of climate change on every natural weather event will continue to gain more attention; so much to the point where it may be easier for us to start convincing people to think more reasonably.
The net zero failures in the West will also gain a lot of attention. However given the mild winter Europe is having, I would say we shouldn’t expect much more this year. When a freezing cold winter hits Europe again, that’s when the Net Zero agenda will start taking damage.
All in all, I think it will be a better year for us. The recent Twitter takeover was a god send and will help us with all of what I mentioned above.
Happy New Year everyone! I wish everyone a happy 2023.
Since last year was only 7th warmest ever according to the Scientologists, there is a ways for them to go although I imagine the adjustment bureau is working hard on it
The year 2023. Abundant, low cost energy and fuel is delivered to the populous world wide.
Mutually assured prosperity has arrived for most of the planet with memories of the concocted climate crisis fading into the history’s heap of whoppers.
Unfortunately what should be has been postponed indefinitely because faulty people with names conspire and stand in the way of the progress that humanity deserves.
Happy New Year to all.
Say, does anyone recall or have saved an essay from some years ago, maybe by Matt Ridley or Christopher Monckton, something about some questions the writer would like to have answered by the climate alarmists or activists? Something like that… a starting point to have a reasonable discussion with those who think Anthropogenic Global Warming is enough to be worried about.
I just read a brief online column, 4 questions to ask climate change alarmists, and it reminded me of something I read several years ago. No success with google search as of yet.
Happy New Year to you curmudge1:
If you visit JoNova (there’s a direct link above, or just do joannenova.com.au), go the to post that says “Saturday Open Thread”. There, go down to comment number 20.2, by a person using the handle “Lance”. The post lists four questions, and then links to an article. It may not be what you are looking for, but it is a place to start.
I hope that helps to some extent,
Vlad
pointing out that the NSIDC sea ice cover graph (search “NSIDC daily” and click on 2022) against north polar temperatures did not make sense at year end. Something wrong with the ice calcs again ?
Does anyone know how to send a message to the dude that asks for money on Wikipedia?
Here is why I ask: visit this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial
This is a very long piece. Try reading it.
Below is the first sentence on the page about Anthony Watts.
“ . . . an American blogger who runs Watts Up With That?, a popular climate change denial blog that opposes the scientific consensus on climate change.”
Any person that questions anything regarding “the consensus” will be deemed “a anthropogenic climate change denier”.
Try some others, if you have a few minutes.
So, I will never send a halfpenny to Wikipedia unless there is a significant cleansing of all the material that distorts the discussion of Earth’s climate and smears the people that exhibit real characteristics of science.
I remember reading some time back about some joker by the name of Connolly who had taken it upon himself to over- edit every item of content about climate on Wikipedia to turn it into an alarmist propaganda piece.
I think Wiki punted him eventually.
I have informed them that I will not donate as long as they have biased articles. I received an answer denying bias. “There are none so blind as those who will not see.”
Might as well be happy and healthy while watching Net Zero Inc. fail….
The 7 Tenets — kaufmannprotocol.com
Within three days, two fronts from the north will reach the central US.
Here we go, the chief ambulance chaser gets his time on MSNBC. It is sickening.
MSNBC Lets Environmental Alarmist Michael Mann Tie Blizzard to Global Warming | Newsbusters
Someone should remind the AP and the TVA that we’ve have more grid stability problems since the introduction of more solar and wind rather than less:
https://apnews.com/article/power-outages-natural-disasters-storms-tennessee-climate-and-environment-4043b2ce15da10c412078c88c65d50bb
It looks like the psychologists are trying to figure out how to brainwash the public better about the benign gas, CO2. Apparently, past efforts to scare people are not getting the results they want.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/psychiatry-for-the-people/202301/transilience-a-new-way-to-think-about-climate-change
“Given the growing threat from climate change and the related risk of escalating disasters including extreme weather events, immediate risks of destruction and exacerbation of poverty, disease and food insecurity, and human displacement, it becomes more imperative each day to better understand the psychology of human action and inaction in order to foster behavioral changes to secure greater safety and predictability.”
end excerpt
The Human-caused Climate Change Propagandists are working overtime trying to convince the public that they should be very afraid of CO2.
A stationary low with snowfall has formed over Colorado. On the outskirts of this low, secondary low centers are forming, one of the cold fronts will reach Texas and pull air from the Gulf of Mexico.
My 1Jan2023 proposal to Steve Kirsch re Covid-19 toxic vaxxes – remedial measures:
Subject: IMPORTANT – A BETTER IDEA: What we need right now is a voluntary, inexpensive, effective treatment protocol
Hi Steve Kirsch,
The Covid-19 vaxxes are highly toxic and ineffective. We should never vaccinate into an pandemic because the vaccines will cause variants – basic Darwin biology – in the same way that antibiotics can cause antibiotic-resistant bacteria.
What we need most right now is a voluntary, inexpensive, effective, over-the-counter treatment protocol for Covid-19 and the vaxx-injured, who we can assume includes everyone who is vaxxed for Covid-19. This will SAVE LIVES!
We could start this program in Florida and Alberta and it will grow. DeSantis is competent and so is our new Alberta Premier.
Regards, Allan MacRae
https://energy-experts-international.com/
_______________
Emailed to the Alberta Cabinet and MLA’s on 8Jan2021:
[excerpt – Note I should have said “under 130”]
“The Covid-19 vaccine developments were rushed and are not proven safe or effective and should NOT be taken, especially by the low-risk population – those under-65 or recovered from Covid-19. The two experimental Covid-19 vaccines that contain mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) are especially risky – due to unknown future side-effects, the risk-to-reward is far too high for the low-risk group.”
ON PREDICTIONS
“The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.”
(Ref. CorrectPredictions.ca)
What constitutes the “best” prediction? The best prediction is the earliest AND the most accurate description of future events. This best prediction of important consequences SHOULD enable society to properly plan for the future and avoid major costly and destructive errors.
Unfortunately , in the case of both the Climate and Covid scams, correct early predictions of disastrous outcomes by me and others were ignored, and society was manipulated by a multi-billion dollar fear-driven propaganda campaign that squandered trillions of dollars and millions of lives.
The Climate and Covid scams were promoted by scoundrels and imbeciles – the scoundrels, the promoters of these scams, knew they were lying; the imbeciles believed them – wolves stampeding the sheep. The Leninist/Goebbels fear-based propaganda tactics used by the authorities to enforce the Climate and Covid scams were the same, and the same totalitarian “usual suspects” supported both scams and even linked them”, saying “To solve Covid we must solve Climate” – utter nonsense
.
Most academics are reluctant to make predictions, because predictions are high-risk and they don’t want to be wrong. Academics typically write about the past, and in this regard they often, but not always, exhibit 20:20 hindsight. However, their observations are of limited value in developing policy, because they are too late – the disasters had already occurred.
We are starting to see the beginning of a future flood of academic papers condemning in hindsight the Climate and Covid scams, now that the damage of these scams has become obvious and the risk of speaking out has diminished. These latecomers may help to correct current errors, but unfortunately, most of the damage has already been done. Some say “Better late than never”, to which I counter “Where were you when we needed you?” In too many cases, they were on the side of the scammers, who vilified those of us who, years earlier, made the correct calls against these egregious scams. In summary, their contributions were not helpful, but were, in total, destructive.
The lesson here is that policy makers should be consulting the “best” predictors, the earliest and most accurate, if they hope to avoid the grievous errors of recent decades, that have wasted trillions of dollars and cost many millions of lives.
EPILOGUE
Happy New Year everyone!
We’ve published everything we needed to say long ago – our condemnation of the Climate-and-Green-Energy scam dates from Nov2002.
My condemnation of the Covid-19 Lockdowns-and-“Vaccines” scam dates from 21Mar2020.
Best regards to all, Allan MacRae
SCIENTIFIC COMPETENCE – THE ABILITY TO CORRECTLY PREDICT
“The ability to correctly predict is the best objective measure of scientific and technical competence.”
by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc. (Eng.), M.Eng., October 20, 2021. Update December 24, 2022
https://CorrectOredictions.ca/
Our scientific predictions on both Climate and Covid are infinitely more accurate than the mainstream narratives, which have been false and baselessly alarmist to date.
BACKGROUND
As described in the above paper, My co-authors and I correctly identified the Climate-and-Green-Energy fraud in 2002, as follows:
The PEGG, November 2002
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
– by Sallie Baliunas (Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian), Tim Patterson (Paleoclimatologist, Carleton U), Allan MacRae (Professional Engineer, retired (Queen’s U, U of Alberta)
I correctly identified the destructive–and-ineffective Covid-19 Lockdown scam in Feb2020 and published in Mar2020.
21March2020
LET’S CONSIDER AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH:
Isolate people over sixty-five and those with poor immune systems and return to business-as-usual for people under sixty-five.
This will allow “herd immunity” to develop much sooner and older people will thus be more protected AND THE ECONOMY WON’T CRASH.
Six months later world experts published the ~same recommendations in the Great Barrington Declaration.
I advised our Alberta and Federal governments on 8Jan2021 that the Covid-19 “Vaccines” were TOXIC AND INEFFECTIVE and should not be deployed and that also proved correct. That was the second part of the Covid-19 scam – to peddle billions of dollars of toxic, ineffective injections that have now killed or harmed many more people than the Covid-19 virus.
I emailed to the Alberta government, other politicians and media on 8Jan2021:
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS RE COVID-19
_________________________________
https://atomicinsights.com/enough-with-renewables/
Having endured the Christmas blizzard here in Buffalo NY, I haven’t heard how our wind turbines on Lake Erie functioned. In general, do wind turbines have to be shut down during a blizzard or hurricane, or can they operate unimpaired during strong winds?
Interesting stuff:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/justice-minister-unveils-plan-to-shackle-the-high-court-overhaul-israels-judiciary/