Valley Fever:  Neither caused by nor spread by climate change

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen —  19 November 2023

Valley Fever — which can sometimes be deadly and sometimes so innocuous as to be mistaken for a cold or mild flu — has now been added to the list of things “caused by climate change”.  Actually, the real claim is that the future spread of Valley Fever, if it occurs, will be caused by climate change because “models”.

The paper is reported in an article in the Washington Post, titled “An invisible killer” which was written by Joshua Partlow, Veronica Penney and Carolyn Van Houten and published Nov. 13 2023.  The lede or sub-title is “A flesh-eating fungus is expanding its range in the American West — and scientists suspect climate change is driving the spread”.

They first tell the story of a single man and his horrific encounter with Valley Fever.  And it is true that some people can get very sick with Valley Fever – but very few. 

The CDC says:  “Valley fever, also called coccidioidomycosis, is an infection caused by the fungus Coccidioides. The fungus is known to live in the soil in the southwestern United States and parts of Mexico and Central and South America. The fungus was also recently found in south-central Washington. People can get Valley fever by breathing in the microscopic fungal spores from the air, although most people who breathe in the spores don’t get sick. Usually, people who get sick with Valley fever will get better on their own within weeks to months, but some people will need antifungal medication. Certain groups of people are at higher risk for becoming severely ill. It’s difficult to prevent exposure to Coccidioides in areas where it’s common in the environment, but people who are at higher risk for severe Valley fever should try to avoid breathing in large amounts of dust if they’re in these areas.”

Please take note:  Nowhere, in any description outside of the MSM (all of which seem to be quoting the Washington Post),  is the fungus that  causes Valley Fever referred to as a “flesh-eating fungus”.  There is a condition called Necrotizing Fasciitis but it is caused by bacteria (Strep A is the most likely culprit), not a fungus and certainly not Coccidioides. A search of the CDC website returns no instances of any flesh-eating fungal infections.

Really, our hard-working team of journalists are reporting, with extravagance, about a study done by Morgan Gorris in 2019.  Her University of California, Irvine web page says:  “I study coccidioidomycosis, also known as valley fever, an infectious disease caused by the inhalation of airborne fungal spores. As our climate changes, the atmospheric transport patterns and habitable environment of this species is hypothesized to shift, causing new populations to be exposed to the disease. I am interested in relating past epidemiological trends of valley fever cases to climate and environmental factors which influence the life cycle of the fungi. I then use these relationships to forecast what new populations may be susceptible to contracting valley fever in response to future climate change.”

Her study “Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change” naturally used RCP8.5 to “predict the climate” of the American West out to 2095, based on precipitation and temperature, and produced this animated gif to illustrate the “hypothesized spread” of  Valley Fever.

[Open image in a new tab, or click here, to see the animated gif.]

The down to earth truth is that scientists and doctors have no idea whatever how widely the fungus that causes Valley Fever can be found in the western parts of the United States.    Or exactly what the natural reservoir of the fungus is that causes Valley Fever when its spores or fungus fragments are inhaled by humans.  They only know where the fungus is found by looking at where Valley Fever cases are found.   In the last decade doctors were surprised to find a cluster of Valley Fever cases in eastern Washington State that were confirmed to have been contracted locally, and not in Southern California or Arizona. The fungi that cause Valley Fever are Coccidioides immitis and Coccidioides posadasiii.  In the United States, scientists have found C. immitis primarily in California, as well as Washington State. C. posadasii is found primarily in Arizona, as well as New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Texas, and portions of southern California.

When the word reservoir is used with a disease-causing factor (such as a germ, bacteria, virus) this means “one or more epidemiologically connected populations or environments in which the pathogen can be permanently maintained and from which infection is transmitted to the defined target population” [ source ].  In other words, where the pathogen lives when before it is transmitted to and infects a human (in this case).  For malaria, it is often incorrectly believed that mosquitos are the reservoir but this is not true.  Humans themselves are the reservoir for malaria  (and dengue and others) and mosquitos are only the vector.

For Valley Fever, an environment of a particular type seems to be the reservoir: the hot, dry, dusty soils found in the dry areas of the American West.

The number of Valley Fever cases is increasing:

The most important factors for Valley Fever stats are: Increased surveillance (many states require reporting cases, many do not)  which also means more doctors looking and testing  for Valley Fever;  and the number of people exposing themselves to Valley Fever – more people four-wheeling and off-roading in the deserts of the American West.  The number of cases outside of Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah is so small it is difficult to see it in the CDC chart (above).

We know that the Valley Fever fungus is found in the dry soils of the American southwest, more easily found in the holes that rodents dig and live in:  whether or not the rodents have any relationship to the fungus or if the rodents are just digging and exposing the underground growing fungus is not known.  Valley Fever was first found in the San Juaquin Valley of California, mostly among the farm workers there, who are most likely to be exposed to dust in the fields.  Contraction of the disease is usually associated with inhalation of fine soil dust, and more so, it seems, when the soils re-dry after heavy rains. 

The idea that Valley Fever could have an expanded range came from a confirmed cluster of cases in eastern Washington State, a kid landed on  his face in the dusty desert from his off-road cycle and inhaled a lungful of dust.  He developed Valley Fever.  Since that case was confirmed, more people were tested.

In 2007, Valley Fever cases were reported in the following areas:

The U.S. CDC  shares this map of the range of Coccidioides:

So, there we have it.  The CDC knows where Valley Fever cases occur, and maps the suspected existing range of Coccidioides – Darker shadedareas where Coccidioides is more likely to live”.  This map was developed by tracking Valley Fever cases, and not through soil testing for the fungus.  Diagonal shading shows the potential range of Coccidioides, where the fungus might be found if the soils were tested, but even then, it would be found only by chance, as it is in the areas it is known to be extant.   The CDC states explicitly: “These maps show CDC’s current estimate of where the fungi that cause coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) live in the environment. These fungi are not distributed evenly in the shaded areas, might not be present everywhere in the shaded areas, and can also be outside the shaded areas.”

As we can see below, the Gorris projection for 2095 is very close to the CDC statement of where Coccidioides already is suspected of existing:

Bottom Line:

If you live in Arizona or the Joaquin Valley of California and are a dedicated desert dust-eater (four-wheeling, off-road Jeeping, prospecting in dusty soils, or doing archaeology out West), you need to be aware of Valley Fever and wear protective breathing gear to keep the dust out of your lungs.

The fungi Coccidioides might be found in the soils anywhere west of the Rockies and doctors and nurses should be aware of the possibility of Valley Fever cases.

The rest of us can ignore the alarmist press on it. 

Coccidioides is NOT a flesh-eating fungi. (It can cause a rash.)

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Authors Comment:

If this story (well, a sensible, non-alarmist version of it) had appeared in the Phoenix Sun or any local southwestern newspaper, it would be a public good, reminding people of the possibility of Valley Fever and its causes and symptoms.  Its appearance in the Washington Post, “flesh-eating fungus”, can only be propaganda.

COP28 hysteria on climate change – which, apparently, causes everything bad and nothing good.

I spent a lot of my youth in the deserts of California, Nevada and Arizona – didn’t get Valley Fever – did get Cat Scratch Fever though.  

Thanks for reading.

# # # # #

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Tom Halla
November 21, 2023 6:18 am

I would suspect most victims are imununosuppressed. But any study using RCP8.5 is fear porn.

Curious George
Reply to  Tom Halla
November 21, 2023 7:37 am

A beautiful example how modern “science” cares about us. Give them a huge grant!

strativarius
November 21, 2023 6:58 am

The down to earth truth is that scientists and doctors have no idea whatever.

Amen to that truth.

And they really don’t…

scadsobees
November 21, 2023 7:15 am

So? I have two nephews who were hospitalized by a lung dirt fungus, one in michigan, one in iowa.

It was blastomycosis…but either way, if you are concerned about getting it, you should wear a mask when disturbing dirt, whether in Arizona, Michigan, or Iowa.

One nephew was just digging, the other was deconstructing an old bat infested chimney, and his buddy got it too.

scadsobees
Reply to  scadsobees
November 21, 2023 7:16 am

When I say “So?”, it’s in response to the fortune telling article, not this site republishing it….

Chemman
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 22, 2023 8:15 am

Kip, today’s article and your replies brings back my Mycology Class information from the mid 70’s. Well done

Walter Sobchak
November 21, 2023 7:16 am

SUVs.

Mike McMillan
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
November 21, 2023 10:47 am

Oh, that is so “1980s”

Sunsettommy
November 21, 2023 8:01 am

This revelation invalidates the obvious propaganda piece,

Her study “Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change” naturally used RCP8.5 to “predict the climate” of the American West out to 2095, based on precipitation and temperature, and produced this animated gif to illustrate the “hypothesized spread” of Valley Fever.

Never going to happen as the number is bogus crap.

Bruce Cobb
November 21, 2023 8:13 am

Also on the rise: Climate Change Fever, characterized by near-constant fear and panic about the weather, and about the end of the world due to man’s desire to be comfortable, and the inability to distinguish fact from fiction, among other things.

kwinterkorn
November 21, 2023 8:29 am

As a radiologist in New Mexico, I see chest xrays with evidence of an old coccidioidomycosis or Valley Fever infection often. Most patients never knew they had anything but a cold. Sometimes the leftover scar or indolent infection looks like a lung cancer and needs to be biopsied.

Like with many weak pathogens, people with compromised immune symptoms can be in trouble with this infection.

How the climate alarmists love to scare us! They don’t see that every time they cry “Wolf!” they are diminished.

Michael S. Kelly
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 21, 2023 7:01 pm

Valley Fever was common where I grew up, in Missouri. It was thought to be transmitted by pigeon poop back then (50s through 70s). One doctor I had in the 80s picked up lesions on my lungs in a chest X-ray and, noting where I had grown up, attributed them to Valley Fever. No other doctor – and I’ve had many – has ever made that observation. My lungs have some kind of problem, but he’s the only one to have pointed to Valley Fever.

Ron Long
November 21, 2023 8:52 am

When we stopped in Las Vegas to visit uncles and aunts for a few days, in 1961, my twin brother got Valley Fever, breathing difficulty enough to go to the hospital. Looks like he was ahead of the times. I didn’t get it, so much for identical twins.

Ron Long
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 21, 2023 12:21 pm

Yes, he got better quickly, however, he wasn’t any smarter.

John Hultquist
November 21, 2023 9:14 am

 Thanks Kip.
Background reading here for Washington State animals.

Autochthonous Transmission of Coccidioides in Animals, Washington, USA
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6302573/

One question I have is “Where did this organism begin?
I live in the dry area of WA in which the few cases have been reported.
I am familiar with the extensive travel of both horses and dogs to all the Western States.
Shows and various competitions, many involving bird dogs and horses together {field trials} have been regular activities for decades.
Search-up: “bird dog field trial with horses”
. . . using “images” to see photos of this activity.
[Been there, done that, have the t-shirt.]

John Hultquist
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 21, 2023 3:02 pm

 There are “flushing” breeds, such as Springer Spaniels and Golden Retrievers. With these, the handler is on foot, the dog stays close, and the flush, by the dog, has to be within shotgun range.
Pointing breeds include English Pointer, German Shorthaired Pointer, and American Brittanys, and many others.
There are “walking trials” where the handler does not ride a horse, and there are trials where the handlers (a brace of 2 dogs, each with a handler) and judges {and often a gallery of on-lookers} ride horses. The pointing dogs may be running, say 300 yards, ahead of all the humans and horses.
There is some sort of “magic” between a game bird and a pointing dog. The dog can scent a bird at, say, 50 yards or 10 feet. A proper “find” will have the humans and horses ride to some yards short of the dog. The handler dismounts, and on foot, will move past the dog and flush the bird. The dog should remain motionless except for the head and eyes watching.
Two sorts of events are held. One, the bird flies off, the handler goes back to the dog, and with a command “releases” the point, and all go off in a new direction. Type #2, gunners (usually 2) are along and will attempt to shoot a bird. If they manage, then the handler releases the dog for a retrieve. If the gunners miss, the handler, as before, goes back and releases the pointer and off they go in a new direction. Blank pistols (32s) are fired when there are no gunners.
With some events, any mistake will lead to a disqualification and a pick-up of the dog. In other events, the animal is not picked-up, and the trial moves on for a set 30 minutes or an hour. That mistake my cost the dog a placement, but should he/she outperform other competitors, may win a ribbon. Sometimes judges will withhold placements.  

abolition man
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 21, 2023 9:41 pm

Kip,
As a one-time guide at dude strings back in old Commiefornia, I can tell you that it is far more fun to be out on horseback with foxes than dogs; all be it much more dangerous!
Thanks for for the heads-up about CSD, but I didn’t see any mention of Ted Nugent!?

Fran
November 21, 2023 9:44 am

Not to be confused with coccydiosis in chickens which is a protozoal disease.

antigtiff
November 21, 2023 9:51 am

So, it is more serious than cabin fever?….much worse. Call it Climate Fever and make it part of Climatemania 2023!

Ex-KaliforniaKook
November 21, 2023 9:57 am

Wow! First article here I closely and personally relate to. I know the man who had the “horrific encounter” with Valley Fever. At least up to a few years ago, he was the only survivor of the severe form of the infection. We went to college together (physics majors – only a few of us across all years), and later both worked at McDonnell Douglas. While he probably caught it while growing up in the San Juaquin Valley (up to 1974), it didn’t strike until about 1983. I remember because I used to take him to the hospital for injections and had to stop on the way home to let him vomit by the side of the road. Many months in the hospital after that without the ability to recognize his friends or his doctors.

He’s still hanging in there – in much better shape, although not back to normal. He had to quit McDonD – didn’t have the ability to work 40 hours in a week without ending up back in the hospital. I moved away after retirement, but we stay in touch. It really affected his brain. He is sharp, but still gets incredible headaches. Considering the severity, he’s getting up there in age!

Definitely NOT flesh-eating. I don’t know where they got that.

sturmudgeon
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 21, 2023 11:21 am

Was that Mark Steyn’s ‘Cat Scratch Fever’?

Richard Page
Reply to  sturmudgeon
November 21, 2023 12:57 pm

You can catch it from Mark Steyn?

Dena
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 21, 2023 6:40 pm

There is a little magic in medicine but maybe not where you think it might be. Antibiotics can start making you feel better in as little as 8 hours. Xarelto can start clearing deadly blood clots in hours. My roommate is on the drug and went from a high risk of clots to no risk without any side effects. You have to do the hard work of a proper diagnosis but some of the treatments are almost magic.

B Zipperer
Reply to  Ex-KaliforniaKook
November 21, 2023 6:00 pm

Most people living in the Southwest USA get Valley Fever (hard to avoid dust if you live there for
> 20yrs!) but the illness is so mild they don’t go to the doctor, thus are never formally diagnosed.
Those with a compromised immune system, or say diabetes or lung disease are more prone to a bad case of it so they get diagnosed.
But here’s the catch: you never actually rid yourself of the fungus. It just becomes dormant but in some people years later it can “reactivate” to cause an acute illness. Reactivation can be triggered by something else that impairs the immune system. Like taking prednisone.
Practicing in the Phoenix area, we would always test patients for VF – especially for respiratory conditions, but it can cause s myriad of other problems: from meningitis to arthritis to a just a rash.
And as Kip found out, the residual scarring of the lung can fool the doctor into thinking you have cancer, or some other type of infection.
Here is a stock photo of a Haboob. No one can avoid breathing in dust. No RCP8.5 required!

Haboob_photo.jpg
Dena
Reply to  B Zipperer
November 21, 2023 9:45 pm

Not really dormant, more like encapsulated. The body tends to do that with things it can’t get rid of.

Denis
November 21, 2023 12:48 pm

So what Morgan Gorris essentially said four years ago is that western deserts will expand towards the East and North, bringing the dust-liking fungus along. There are satellites that measure the expansion (and contraction) of greenness into desert areas and recently green is expanding. On what basis does she predict the opposite?

Richard Page
Reply to  Denis
November 21, 2023 12:58 pm

Models, what else?

Bob
November 21, 2023 1:11 pm

Number one how can a study pass the smell test using RCP 8.5? Any reviewer who gives it his stamp of approval or any publisher who accepts it should be fired. As for the Washington Post it has clearly reported a falsehood by referring to the fungus as flesh eating. Something must be done about media sources who knowingly lie. Lying is not okay.

doonman
November 21, 2023 6:01 pm

The number of Valley Fever cases is increasing

The number of people living in areas where valley fever is prevalent is increasing.

Now, if the rate of valley fever is increasing, then they should say so, but they didn’t.

Bill Parsons
November 21, 2023 6:04 pm

Seems like the media unearths a new pestilence every few years here in the West. Money for research, drugs, specialists and treatments follow.

Hanta Virus, Pneumonic Plague, RSV Infection… a lot of lung diseases.

From the late1800s until 1940s, doctors sent so many sick Easterners to Colorado to convalesce from “TB” that they engendered a health care industry here. Patients in their beds lined the balconies of sanitariums and converted hotels in midwinter to get the fresh clean air, and they were well-tended by nurses and pulmonary specialists. So many consumptives came here that it was estimated one in three Colorado residents was a “lunger”. The sanitariums became resorts for the wealthy consumptives who were served fancy meals and partook of the mineral waters. Doc Holliday died in Glenwood Springs.

Whether all of these visitors to the state actually had t.b.is anybody’s guess If the way our modern health care industry handled the data of a supposed “pandemic” is any indication… According to the CDC, the U.S had an average of 30 to 90 thousand influenza deaths per year (with high confidence) for the decade leading up to the pandemic. Then a few hundred during the days when Covid held reign. From the CDC website:

** Estimates are not available for the 2020-2021 flu season due to minimal influenza activity.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

Right.

Dena
November 21, 2023 6:27 pm

I had it, probably in the 60’s. It was unknown until I had an X-ray in the late 70’s. I have a dark spot about the size of a hard ball in my right lung. Latter when an X-ray was being read, somebody thought it was cancer so I had them pull an old X-ray out and compare the two. Instant cure.
Anyway, the fungus lives below the top of the soil and there was a good deal of construction so there was a lot of freshly turned soil One dust storm and there was tons of dirt in the air. In those days it was common to see dense walls of dirt. These days there are ridged rules for controlling dust so clouds of dust are not as dense as before and consist of surface soil.
If they want to find valley fever, they have to dig deep because as long as the soil isn’t moved, nobody will see it. Fungus like everything else needs moisture and you’re not going to find it on the surface.

Chemman
November 22, 2023 8:12 am

My older sister caught Valley Fever while she lived in the Central California area in the mid 1960’s. The only way she found out was that she had to take a TB test in the late 70’s for a medical job and she had a positive TB Tine test. Turns out that Valley Fever was cross reactive with that test. It meant that every time she had to be retested she needed to get a chest x-ray to prove no TB. When they changed to the new TB test that nightmare went away.

Andy Pattullo
November 22, 2023 10:25 am

As a Canadian infectious disease specialist I frequently have seen people (often “snowbirds”) who returned from time in the SW dessert areas of the US having contracted Cocci. Most were fine and had mild illness with no need for treatment. It may be useful for travelers to know that the risk is low and can be reduced by avoiding disturbing soil especially after recent rainfall. Rain seems to trigger sporulation where fungus in the soil grows and releases spores which can then be inhaled and, in some, cause infection. Many cases I saw had been digging in the garden or doing outdoor activities in wind and dust, often after recent rainfall.

To put things in perspective if you are willing to drive a car, undertake sports, smoke, consume excess alcohol or recreational drugs, have unprotected sexual relationships or eat and drink anywhere where sanitation is lacking, then you should not worry about trivial risks like contracting Cocci. Calling it a flesh-eating disease is like calling the current Canadian Prime Minister an intellectual heavyweight.

Clyde Spencer
November 22, 2023 11:11 am

There is an old saying about nothing new under the sun.

In mid-January (1966), I arrived at Fort Bliss (TX), from the Oakland Induction Center, for Basic Training. Within a couple days of arriving, I and about 3/4ths of the company came down with upper-respiratory infections, that I had long considered to be ‘Walking Pneumonia.’ The base had been deactivated for about a decade, and was being spun up for the anticipated increase in soldiers to be sent to Vietnam, and everything was dusty. We were strongly discouraged from reporting for sick call with threats of having to re-start our Basic Training cycle. We all continued to get worse, with our general health and strength declining. We were coughing up brown and green phlegm that looked like it might crawl away. It got so bad that the IG complained about the appearance of the parade ground, rather than recommend medical treatment for everyone. My wife sent me some oral penicillin, courtesy of the family doctor, after she explained the situation to him. It didn’t seem to help. I managed to graduate as scheduled, and while back home on leave, before reporting to my assignment, I saw the family doctor. He gave me a prescription for a 3-month supply of tetracycline, which may or may not have helped. I eventually got better, but I suspect it was my own immune system that was responsible. It is my understanding that the proper treatment for coccidioidomycosis is a fungicide, not an antibiotic.

The point of this is that those of us who had grown up where coccidioidomycosis was not prevalent, were very susceptible and many became very sick, requiring hospitalization for a few days. My bunk-mate, who I had worked with at Lockheed MSC before we got drafted, did spend 3 days in the hospital, but graduated as scheduled.

Every year in February, Tucson hosts a major, international gem and mineral show. New arrivals so commonly acquire upper respiratory infections (probably coccidioidomycosis) that it has acquired the name of the “Tucson Crud.”

This isn’t about ‘Global Boiling,’ it is a matter of an increasing population, with many people moving to Arizona and Texas to enjoy the snow-free Winters.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 23, 2023 8:47 am

I can’t assert with complete confidence that the incidents I related were cocci’ because no one cultured the infections; however, in a long lifetime of going to conferences, conventions, and other crowded public events, I have never been as sick as I was in Basic Training, and all the upper-respiratory secondary bacterial infections I have had (probably on average about one or two per year) have responded well to antibiotics — except the Texas one, which also didn’t have the usual (for me) 3-5 day viral precursor.

Dust storms are common in the Fort Bliss area. During the two months I was there, we experienced a storm so bad that we had to put rolled-up, wet towels at the base of all the barracks doors and windows to try to keep the dust out, but were not completely successful.

In Tucson, it doesn’t have to be transmitted from person to person. At some of the outdoor venues, one has to blow the dust off the specimens displayed on tables to get a good look at what one is buying. During dry, warm years, there is dust everywhere.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 23, 2023 8:57 am

… my understanding is that you have to breath in a lot of dust containing the spores….

Individuals vary in their susceptibility. I can remember articles in the San Jose Mercury News about cases of cocci’ developing in the SF Bay Area after strong wind storms in the San Joaquin Valley blew dust into what is now known as Silicon Valley, back in the ’70s.

Mark Luhman
November 22, 2023 8:24 pm

Someone who has Valley Fever will can tell you this is BS. In the 1990 I lived in Fargo ND and read in the Fargo Forum a man died of a fungus he inhaled in his garden. The reason Valley Fever is a problem is nice warm wet winters and spring with a dry period and them wind storms to kick it up the spores. It would not surprise me that is would not have been more wide spread in the thirties. Condition are right it will spread when condition change it will contract. Only fools make predictions about the future and bigger fools believe them.

Mark Luhman
November 22, 2023 9:25 pm

Someone who has Valley Fever, our fine medical community though it had to be CIVID my dermatologist told me ways from the rash I developed. Confirmation was forth coming since I had insisted for that test and Valley Fever and West Nile. Lung problem and fungus infection are more common that they want to admit. In the 1990 I lived in Fargo ND and read in the Fargo Forum a man died of a fungus he inhaled in his garden. The reason Valley Fever is a problem is nice warm wet winters and spring with a dry period and them wind storms to kick it up the spores. It would not surprise me that is would not have been more wide spread in the thirties. Condition are right it will spread when condition change it will contract. If someone tells you they know for certain something going to happen in the future and it does not involve death or taxes run and hold onto you wallet.

Thomas Finegan
December 2, 2023 4:47 pm

Unlike the California central valley the areas Valley Fever may spread to are the least populated areas of the contiguous United States.

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