Climate sensitivity • Watts Up With That? https://wattsupwiththat.com The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change Wed, 20 Dec 2023 17:29:08 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/cropped-WUWT-logo.jpg?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Climate sensitivity • Watts Up With That? https://wattsupwiththat.com 32 32 146051786 A Thought Experiment; Simplifying the Climate Riddle. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/12/20/a-thought-experiment-simplifying-the-climate-riddle/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=a-thought-experiment-simplifying-the-climate-riddle https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/12/20/a-thought-experiment-simplifying-the-climate-riddle/#comments Thu, 21 Dec 2023 06:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10272924 Is it possible to simplify the climate sensitivity debate?

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/12/20/a-thought-experiment-simplifying-the-climate-riddle/feed/ 199 10272924 Hansen’s latest overheated global warming claims are based on poor science https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/11/09/hansens-latest-overheated-global-warming-claims-are-based-on-poor-science/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=hansens-latest-overheated-global-warming-claims-are-based-on-poor-science https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/11/09/hansens-latest-overheated-global-warming-claims-are-based-on-poor-science/#comments Thu, 09 Nov 2023 14:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10267397 ...he leads are increasingly strongly biased towards overheated projections and dire conclusions.

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/11/09/hansens-latest-overheated-global-warming-claims-are-based-on-poor-science/feed/ 78 10267397 Spencer and Christy’s new climate sensitivity paper has been published – and its LOWER. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/09/29/spencer-and-christys-new-climate-sensitivity-paper-has-been-published-and-its-lower/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=spencer-and-christys-new-climate-sensitivity-paper-has-been-published-and-its-lower https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/09/29/spencer-and-christys-new-climate-sensitivity-paper-has-been-published-and-its-lower/#comments Fri, 29 Sep 2023 17:10:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10262496 From Dr. Roy Spencer: If we assume ALL *observed* warming of the deep oceans and land since 1970 has been due to humans, we get an effective climate sensitivity to…

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/09/29/spencer-and-christys-new-climate-sensitivity-paper-has-been-published-and-its-lower/feed/ 205 10262496 An Unsettling Insight https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/09/28/an-unsettling-insight/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=an-unsettling-insight https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/09/28/an-unsettling-insight/#comments Thu, 28 Sep 2023 17:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10262308 Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the classical way to measure the very poorly-named “greenhouse effect”, which has nothing to do with greenhouses. To my knowledge,…

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/09/28/an-unsettling-insight/feed/ 223 10262308 More on the statistical dispute between Scafetta and Schmidt https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/09/23/more-on-the-statistical-dispute-between-scafetta-and-schmidt/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=more-on-the-statistical-dispute-between-scafetta-and-schmidt https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/09/23/more-on-the-statistical-dispute-between-scafetta-and-schmidt/#comments Sat, 23 Sep 2023 17:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10261499 By Andy May The argument about the proper way to estimate error in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA5 weather reanalysis dataset between Nicola Scafetta and Gavin…

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/09/23/more-on-the-statistical-dispute-between-scafetta-and-schmidt/feed/ 392 10261499 How Much Warming Can We Expect in the 21st Century? https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/07/09/how-much-warming-can-we-expect-in-the-21st-century/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-much-warming-can-we-expect-in-the-21st-century https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/07/09/how-much-warming-can-we-expect-in-the-21st-century/#comments Sun, 09 Jul 2023 13:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10252511 Assuming that the climate sensitivity from Lewis22 is correct and that RCP3.4 is the most appropriate emissions scenario, then we find that global temperatures will rise by less than 1°C from 2023 to 2100 (not accounting for natural variability).

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/07/09/how-much-warming-can-we-expect-in-the-21st-century/feed/ 120 10252511 The Elephants in The Room https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/05/04/the-elephants-in-the-room/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-elephants-in-the-room https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/05/04/the-elephants-in-the-room/#comments Thu, 04 May 2023 09:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10245491 On that assumption, each $1 billion spent on abatement would prevent less than 1/10,000,000 C:

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/05/04/the-elephants-in-the-room/feed/ 104 10245491 The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 4, converting observations to ECS https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/27/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-4-converting-observations-to-ecs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-4-converting-observations-to-ecs https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/27/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-4-converting-observations-to-ecs/#comments Thu, 27 Apr 2023 17:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10244412 By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they…

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/27/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-4-converting-observations-to-ecs/feed/ 111 10244412 The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 3, What is Climate Sensitivity? https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/26/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-3-what-is-climate-sensitivity/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-3-what-is-climate-sensitivity https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/26/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-3-what-is-climate-sensitivity/#comments Wed, 26 Apr 2023 17:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10244297 By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they…

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/26/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-3-what-is-climate-sensitivity/feed/ 41 10244297 The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 2, the Impact of Clouds https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/25/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-2-the-impact-of-clouds/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-2-the-impact-of-clouds https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/25/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-2-the-impact-of-clouds/#comments Tue, 25 Apr 2023 17:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10244289 By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. The yearly net impact of clouds on outgoing and incoming radiation varies over one W/m2 from year-to-year, according…

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/25/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-2-the-impact-of-clouds/feed/ 77 10244289 The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 1 https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/24/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-1/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-1 https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/24/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-1/#comments Mon, 24 Apr 2023 17:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10244267 By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. The climate sensitivity to CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) is arguably the most important number in the…

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/24/the-mysterious-ar6-ecs-part-1/feed/ 84 10244267 The error of the mean: a dispute between Gavin Schmidt and Nicola Scafetta https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/13/the-error-of-the-mean-a-dispute-between-gavin-schmidt-and-nicola-scafetta/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-error-of-the-mean-a-dispute-between-gavin-schmidt-and-nicola-scafetta https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/13/the-error-of-the-mean-a-dispute-between-gavin-schmidt-and-nicola-scafetta/#comments Thu, 13 Apr 2023 17:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10242475 By Andy May You can read this post in German here, courtesy of Christian Freuer. Here we go again, writing on the proper use of statistics in climate science. Traditionally,…

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/04/13/the-error-of-the-mean-a-dispute-between-gavin-schmidt-and-nicola-scafetta/feed/ 693 10242475 Sunshine and Temperature in Holland https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/02/17/sunshine-and-temperature-in-holland/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sunshine-and-temperature-in-holland https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/02/17/sunshine-and-temperature-in-holland/#comments Fri, 17 Feb 2023 18:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10235469 Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, the endless curiosity of my monkey-mind led me to some interesting datasets over at KNMI. They’re a variety of meteorological measurements made in Holland…

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/02/17/sunshine-and-temperature-in-holland/feed/ 65 10235469 New Harvard Study Proves Exxon Scientists Far Superior at Predicting Climate than the IPCC or James Hansen https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/01/12/new-harvard-study-proves-exxon-scientists-far-superior-at-predicting-climate-than-the-ipcc-or-james-hansen/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=new-harvard-study-proves-exxon-scientists-far-superior-at-predicting-climate-than-the-ipcc-or-james-hansen https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/01/12/new-harvard-study-proves-exxon-scientists-far-superior-at-predicting-climate-than-the-ipcc-or-james-hansen/#comments Thu, 12 Jan 2023 23:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10231273 GIVE EXXON A NOBEL PRIZE!

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/01/12/new-harvard-study-proves-exxon-scientists-far-superior-at-predicting-climate-than-the-ipcc-or-james-hansen/feed/ 100 10231273 Equilibrium Doubled-CO2 Sensitivity by Observational Methods https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/22/equilibrium-doubled-co2-sensitivity-by-observational-methods/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=equilibrium-doubled-co2-sensitivity-by-observational-methods https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/22/equilibrium-doubled-co2-sensitivity-by-observational-methods/#comments Thu, 22 Dec 2022 10:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10228545 On that basis, each $1 billion that Britain and the world spends on chasing after net zero will prevent just one thirty-millionth of a degree of warming that would otherwise have occurred.

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/22/equilibrium-doubled-co2-sensitivity-by-observational-methods/feed/ 134 10228545 Climate Sensitivity from 1970-2021 Warming Estimates https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/20/climate-sensitivity-from-1970-2021-warming-estimates/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=climate-sensitivity-from-1970-2021-warming-estimates https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/20/climate-sensitivity-from-1970-2021-warming-estimates/#comments Tue, 20 Dec 2022 14:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10228308 .. the observational data suggest lower climate sensitivities (ECS) than promoted by the IPCC with a central estimate of +2.09 deg C. for the global average. This is at the bottom end of the latest IPCC (AR6) likely range of 2.0 to 4.5 deg. C.

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/20/climate-sensitivity-from-1970-2021-warming-estimates/feed/ 93 10228308 Transient Climate Response from Observations 1979-2022 https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/09/transient-climate-response-from-observations-1979-2022/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=transient-climate-response-from-observations-1979-2022 https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/09/transient-climate-response-from-observations-1979-2022/#comments Fri, 09 Dec 2022 14:00:10 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10226743 The best estimate of TCR based on CMIP6 models (the red line in Fig.1) is 1.6K / 2*CO2, following the cited paper.

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/09/transient-climate-response-from-observations-1979-2022/feed/ 85 10226743 Scatterplot Sensitivity https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/21/scatterplot-sensitivity/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=scatterplot-sensitivity https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/21/scatterplot-sensitivity/#comments Fri, 21 Oct 2022 17:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10219788 Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach This is the third post looking at the use of 1° latitude by 1° longitude gridcell-based scatterplots. The first post, Global Scatterplots, looked at a…

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/21/scatterplot-sensitivity/feed/ 120 10219788 Solar Sensitivity https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/16/solar-sensitivity/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=solar-sensitivity https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/16/solar-sensitivity/#comments Sun, 16 Oct 2022 17:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10219319 Once the average available solar power is above 310W/m2, you can add up to an additional 50 W/m2 without increasing the surface temperature one bit.

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/16/solar-sensitivity/feed/ 211 10219319 Important New Paper Challenges IPCC’s Claims about Climate Sensitivity https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/20/important-new-paper-challenges-ipccs-claims-about-climate-sensitivity/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=important-new-paper-challenges-ipccs-claims-about-climate-sensitivity https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/20/important-new-paper-challenges-ipccs-claims-about-climate-sensitivity/#comments Tue, 20 Sep 2022 21:00:00 +0000 https://wattsupwiththat.com/?p=10216003 Official IPCC estimates of future global warming may be overstated

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]]> https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/20/important-new-paper-challenges-ipccs-claims-about-climate-sensitivity/feed/ 252 10216003