The Auto Industry in Jonestown

From the MANHATTAN CONTRARIAN

Francis Menton

The notorious events in Jonestown took place so long ago that most readers probably don’t have personal memory of them. In November 1978, in the jungles of Guyana, under the powerful spell of a religious cult with a charismatic leader, and of an all-embracing groupthink, some 900 people somehow agreed to participate in a mass suicide. It was a shocking instance of the kind of collective insanity to which humans can be susceptible.

You might think that the Jonestown massacre was a uniquely extreme example of such a mass psychosis, perhaps attributable largely to unusually susceptible subjects or to the isolated location. Surely our best and brightest leaders of government and business would never fall prey to such collective craziness.

If you think that, then perhaps you should look at what is currently going on in the automotive sector of the economy, under the spell of the climate cult and of government functionaries demanding fealty to anti-carbon doctrines.

On April 12, 2023 the EPA released its most recent proposed regulation of automobile emissions. The document is titled “Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light- Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles.” It is 262 pages long in the standard Federal Register single-spaced three-column format, thus designed to be virtually impossible to read for anyone who is not getting paid to do it. But the heart of the proposed new rule is that, over a period of a few years, it is to become difficult-to-impossible for automobile manufacturers to continue to sell any significant number of internal combustion engine vehicles. Of course EPA never states that explicitly, and makes the game as difficult as possible for any layman to decipher. But try this language from page 29,196 (12 pages into the document and still in the early part of the Executive Summary):

GHG Emissions Standards. . . . The proposed standards are projected to result in an industry-wide average target for the light-duty fleet of 82 grams/mile (g/mile) of CO2 in MY 2032, representing a 56 percent reduction in projected fleet average GHG emissions target levels from the existing MY 2026 standards.

As I understand it, no internal-combustion car can meet this 82 g/mile CO2 emission standard on its own, so the standard effectively means that a manufacturer can only sell IC cars if it can also make and sell enough “zero-emission” cars to get an average down to this level. Thus does EPA deviously announce its intention to force manufacturers to make, and consumers to buy, all or almost all electric vehicles.

Now, at this point this is only a proposed rule. Currently, despite wide availability of electric vehicles, they have only about a 7% market share in the U.S. They also have many disadvantages as against combustion vehicles, including higher price, difficulty to repair when damaged, poor resale value, limited range, long time to recharge, and so forth. And all those are before you get to the most important problem with EVs, which is that the government geniuses are simultaneously working to destroy the electrical grid that is supposed to be the source of the energy for these things.

Might you think that the auto makers would be pushing back on behalf of themselves and their customers to keep combustion vehicles available? You would be wrong. From all appearances, the manufacturers are falling all over themselves to get on the electric car bandwagon. The EPA document itself contains a long list of industry announcements (from page 12,190 – 12,191):

A proliferation of announcements by automakers in the past two years signals a rapidly growing shift in product development focus among automakers away from internal-combustion technologies and toward electrification. For example, in January 2021, General Motors announced plans to become carbon neutral by 2040, including an effort to shift its light-duty vehicles entirely to zero-emissions by 2035. In March 2021, Volvo announced plans to make only electric cars by 2030, and Volkswagen announced that it expects half of its U.S. sales will be all-electric by 2030. In April 2021, Honda announced a full electrification plan to take effect by 2040, with 40 percent of North American sales expected to be fully electric or fuel cell vehicles by 2030, 80 percent by 2035 and 100 percent by 2040. In May 2021, Ford announced that they expect 40 percent of their global sales will be all-electric by 2030. In June 2021, Fiat announced a move to all electric vehicles by 2030, and in July 2021 its parent corporation Stellantis announced an intensified focus on electrification across all of its brands. Also in July 2021, Mercedes-Benz announced that all of its new architectures would be electric-only from 2025, with plans to become ready to go all-electric by 2030 where possible.

But as with the transformation of the electrical grid — where we forge ahead without ever having gotten a demonstration of feasibility or cost — the automakers are also forging ahead en masse into EVs with no demonstration that electric cars can become a successful mass product that fulfills all the functions that IC cars can fulfill. Tesla seems recently to have turned the corner into profitability, but with an expensive niche product that only the wealthy can afford and which is almost always a second (or third or fourth) car.

How is it going with other manufacturers? The Wall Street Journal had an editorial on May 3 summarizing the results so far for a collection of EV startups. There’s Lordstown:

Lordstown had manufactured only 31 vehicles by late February 2023—most of which had to be recalled. Losing patience, Foxconn on April 21 threatened to withdraw its investment, triggering Lordstown’s bankruptcy warning.

And Rivian:

Rivian commanded a $153.3 billion market capitalization. Now it’s worth less than $12 billion.

The WSJ summarizes stock trends of other EV startups:

[O]ther EV startups have crashed from their pandemic highs, including Canoo (down 96%), Nikola (99%), Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (99%), Rivian (90%), Lucid (87%) and Fisker(81%).

How about at the big traditional manufacturers. Robert Bryce at his Substack on May 3 collects some recent information as to Ford:

In March, Ford Motor Company announced that it lost $2.1 billion on its EV business last year. Those losses were double the losses it had on EVs in 2021. As I noted in a video I posted on TikTok on March 23, Ford made 61,575 EVs in 2022. Thus, the company lost about $34,000 on every EV it sold last year. I also noted that the costs of making EVs aren’t falling. Last year, the cost of battery packs for EVs went up by 7%. . . . Indeed, it appears Ford’s 2022 losses were only a warm-up lap. Yesterday afternoon, Ford reported a $722 million loss on its EV business over the first three months of 2023. During that span, Ford sold 10,866 EVs, meaning it lost $66,446 on every EV it sold.

Bryce goes on to quote a JD Power report from May 1: “[M]any new vehicle shoppers are becoming more adamant about their decision to not consider an EV for their next purchase.”

When I last had a post on EVs (February 23), several commenters expressed the opinion that they thought the manufacturers could overcome all the manufacturing problems (cost, battery capacity, charging, etc.) and thus EVs would shortly become the superior product in the marketplace. I suppose that is possible, although if central planning turns out to work in this instance it will be the first time ever anywhere. And further, there is nothing the manufacturers can do to make a country of 200 million or so EVs work when all the reliable generation on the electrical grid has been removed, and home heat has also been electrified. The auto manufacturers seem to be only too willing to go along with a collective suicide, a la Jonestown.

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Joseph Zorzin
May 9, 2023 6:31 am

So, which conservative politicians have the guts to say they’re against all this climate crap? Other, than Trump who has said it’s the biggest scam ever. It seems that many go along with it.

_Jim
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
May 9, 2023 6:39 am

You can do your part, you know, if you are in the US – make a submission of a comment on this proposal pursuant to the APA – Administrative Procedures Act. There should be links off the EPA website for making that sort of submittal.

Scissor
Reply to  _Jim
May 9, 2023 8:12 am

We’re perhaps fortunate to have lived through the period of time when the phrase, “Drink the Kool-Aid” came to its sinister meaning.

It’s only Kool-Aid. It’s only a vaccine.

Tom Halla
Reply to  Scissor
May 9, 2023 11:46 am

To be a pedant, it was FlavrAid.Jones was a cheap bastard.

AndyHce
Reply to  _Jim
May 9, 2023 3:31 pm

It seems rather obvious, at least in so many cases, that only those comments that support the proposals are given any consideration. Those are only given consideration as to how they can be used to bolster the propaganda.

Ian_e
Reply to  _Jim
May 10, 2023 1:38 am

Ha ha ha. You think Biden and co (or even the GOP) will pay any attention to such mock democratic options???

Yirgach
Reply to  _Jim
May 10, 2023 5:53 am

Back in the mid 70’s the planning office where I worked received daily copies of the Federal Register. Reading the phone book was more exciting. Every once in a while we would comment on a relevant entry. At that time Toxic Shock Syndrome was a big topic, especially among the females in the office.
They formed a local group named Tampon Users Group (TUG) and submitted a comment. We all had a good laugh when it appeared in print.

KevinM
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
May 9, 2023 1:23 pm

Maybe they the “conservatives” are doing exactly what USA auto companies are asking for – USA auto companies have better insight into where their money comes from.

“The average passenger car age is currently around 12 years in the United States.”

There are 8 billion Earthlings, vs 400 million USA Earthlings (5 percent-ish). Most of the 8 b can learn to drive.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
May 10, 2023 4:14 am

“So, which conservative politicians have the guts to say they’re against all this climate crap? Other, than Trump”

I was pleasantly surprised the other day when Representative Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Georgia) called climate change a hoax!

That’s the first time I have ever heard her voice an opinion on the subject.

As far as I know, she is the only Republican calling Human-caused Climate Change a Hoax. Other than Trump. One of the former U.S. Senators from my State, U.S. Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma), was for many years the only Republican calling it a hoax. He retired with the last election.

I don’t know how many Republicans feel the same way as Trump, Green, and Inhofe, as none of them have taken this position publicly. I think there is a lot of fear and trepidation with going “against the grain”, for most Republican politicians. They fear the attacks from the Leftwing Media if they do so. And rightfully so. Look at how the Leftwing Media has trashed Donald Trump. Other Republicans keep their mouths shut so they won’t become a target. They roll over and let the radical Democrats have what they want.

Barnes Moore
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
May 10, 2023 8:55 am

Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma was one – of course a search on him only shows articles smearing him as a climate change denier, but he has been a vocal opponent and prepared a document several years ago that debunked the entire scam – a quick search found nothing about it, but I recall reading it. That being said, he retired earlier this year and there are few if any republicans that have the courage or sense to stand up to this nonsense. We are becoming like the UK and the EU where it is impossible to find a candidate willing to face the truth.

Tom Halla
May 9, 2023 6:40 am

The level of gaslighting, no, bulls**t over Jonestown is normal for anything with leftist political ties. Jim Jones was a power broker in San Francisco prior to the move to Guyana, with most of the Democratic party establishment currying favor with Jones.
Of course, it was spun as a “religious fanatic” holding a mass murder/suicide, not a leftist paranoid activist.
The parallel will be that when EV’s melt down, perhaps literally, the Left will take no responsibility.

Steve Case
Reply to  Tom Halla
May 9, 2023 8:58 am

There were other con-artists that attracted left-wing loons Ward Churchill comes to mind.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom Halla
May 9, 2023 11:30 am

What Jones set up was a commune, down there in Guyana. It wasn’t a religious retreat.

The left is very swift to relabel all of their failures in order to hide their participation in these crimes. Just look at how many people are convinced that National Socialism is a right wing philosophy.

stevekj
Reply to  MarkW
May 10, 2023 6:38 am

Indeed, and according to the accounts I read from Jonestown survivors, only the first victim voluntarily drank the Kool-Aid (and didn’t know it was poisoned, yet). The resulting horrible death throes rapidly convinced the rest of the commune-ists that drinking the Kool-Aid was a Bad Idea, but Jones had taken all their guns away, so he was able to force the rest of them to drink it at gunpoint. It was not in any way a “cult of mass suicide”. It was yet another “tyrannical dictator’s mass murder”.

Bryan A
May 9, 2023 6:40 am

4 really HUGE hurdles in their way…

1) Quantity of materials required to enact their Pie In The Sky EV vision
2) Source of raw material ore (mining)
3) Clarification and reduction of raw ore into usable materials (processing)
4) Manufacturing of Batteries (lithium, cobalt, nickel, etc) and new electric motors (copper, aluminum, steel)

All of which needs to be done locally to maintain standards of manufacturing and not create choke hold dependence on unfriendly foreign adversaries (China, Russia)

Scissor
Reply to  Bryan A
May 9, 2023 8:14 am

I thought we were going to outsource manufacture of all of our military EVs to China. How else is the Big Guy going to get his cut?

JamesB_684
Reply to  Bryan A
May 9, 2023 9:24 am

Reason and real-world facts are irrelevant. The goal isn’t to actually replace ICE vehicles… no, the goal is to eliminate travel and shipping for the hoi polloi. Crushing the economy and most people’s livelihood is a feature, not a bug.

William Howard
Reply to  Bryan A
May 9, 2023 11:25 am

not to mention the grid itself which won’t be able to supply enough electricity – some have speculated that the real goal is to drive the masses to public transportation – sounds about right

mikelowe2013
Reply to  William Howard
May 9, 2023 1:00 pm

And the step after that? Probably to eliminate public transport. Can’t have the plebs able to travel and to communicate.

MarkW
Reply to  Bryan A
May 9, 2023 11:31 am

If there are no cars to buy, that’s even better for their schemes.

Nick Graves
Reply to  MarkW
May 13, 2023 2:00 am

Don’t worry – I’m sure they’ll find a way for the really high-end manufacturers to survive.

If you’re very lucky, they might let you rent an Ora Funky Cat, or somesuch.

KevinM
Reply to  Bryan A
May 9, 2023 1:28 pm

All of which needs to be done locally to maintain standards of manufacturing

Written by someone unfamiliar with USA manufacturing standards?

Bryan A
Reply to  KevinM
May 9, 2023 3:34 pm

Said by someone who is probably unfamiliar with Chinese Manufacturing Standards

sciguy54
Reply to  Bryan A
May 9, 2023 5:20 pm

You forget another huge hurdle: Charging all of these new EVs.

For instance, in California the roads support well over 800 million vehicle miles every day on average. A very efficient EV can average about 4 miles per kWh, but heavy trucks and busses far fewer. If you assume 2 miles per kWh as a fleet average, you will add over 400 million kWh of demand each day, with the CA grid currently capable of supplying a bit over 40 mW with reliability. So an extra daily demand equal to about 10 hrs at current peak capacity, with no other demands met during those hours.

Of course, most commuters will want to do that charging at home after peak demand hours (8-9 PM typically) and before morning demand peak (roughly 7-8 AM) when “renewables” currently can only meet about 10-20% of current demand. Thus ALL of the new nighttime EV charger demand will be supplied from “non-renewable” resources. This whole EV thing is a huge scam.

https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html#section-supply-trend

Ian_e
Reply to  Bryan A
May 10, 2023 1:48 am

No, no, no: just accept that noone but the plebs will be allowed to drive or own a car. Simples ( as meerkats like to say in British adverts).

DMacKenzie
May 9, 2023 6:43 am

So now we know why the popular Chevy Bolt was discontinued. The last thing a manufacturer needs is a popular EV on which to lose tens of $K per unit sold.

Scissor
Reply to  DMacKenzie
May 9, 2023 8:15 am

It’s bad enough that the taxpayers have to lose at least $7500 on each EV.

cimdave
Reply to  Scissor
May 9, 2023 10:02 am

But we make up for it in quantity.

Mark Luhman
Reply to  cimdave
May 9, 2023 5:12 pm

Love is, after all it is the normal response that comes out of useful idiot mouths.

KevinM
Reply to  DMacKenzie
May 9, 2023 1:29 pm

Are experienced executives hoping to see a Honda Bolt lose $ per u?

Lee Riffee
May 9, 2023 6:44 am

As a business person, I just can’t imagine the gov’t stepping in with rules and regulations telling me that I can no longer make and sell my profitable products – and, I can only sell the stuff that almost no one ever buys! Me personally, I’d tell them to FOAD and fight their regs with every legal tool I had…..
Hard to imagine a really big business just rolling over and waiting to die.

Retiredinky
Reply to  Lee Riffee
May 9, 2023 10:58 am

In America they don’t die – they get bailed out and prosper. Remember the 2008 – 2009 depression. Remember the Silicon Valley Bank bailout.

Matthew Bergin
Reply to  Lee Riffee
May 9, 2023 11:01 am

Sounds just like Atlas Shrugged. Hearing real politicians today say the same crazy statements as the fictional ones in that book is truly scary. I wonder how in heck did she know?

KevinM
Reply to  Matthew Bergin
May 9, 2023 1:32 pm

New era, same biology. Every time I wonder whether I’ve thought a new though I check Google… nope- some Greek or Mandarin or biblical guy.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  KevinM
May 10, 2023 4:26 am

I used to wonder if I had ever come up with an original thought.

I decided I had come up with an original thought at one time, but now I have forgotten what it was. 🙂

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Matthew Bergin
May 10, 2023 4:24 am

“I wonder how in heck did she know?”

She understood human nature.

MarkW
Reply to  Lee Riffee
May 9, 2023 11:35 am

Two problems, first off the management for these companies all come from the same, already infested, business schools. So most of them have already drunk the kool-aide. The rest know that their jobs depend on pretending to agree with the doomsters.

Secondly, the automakers believe that people will continue to buy their cars, even if they are unhappy with them. After, world wide, all the major automakers are going down the same path.

Lee Riffee
Reply to  MarkW
May 9, 2023 12:22 pm

Yes, that’s certainly part of the problem. The automakers have been sold a hill of beans and by and large don’t have a clue where they are headed. They are in the early phase of cult indoctrination where new cult members are made pie in the sky promises of greatness and spiritual nirvana. And they soon find out that cult members who challenge the status quo are sanctioned. And yes, cult members, once fully indoctrinated, do indeed think that what they are pushing is the greatest thing since sliced bread. And they have no comprehension that most people would refuse to go along with them.
At best, they will end up with a Scientology like cult, surviving off of wealthy peoples’ monies. But either way, they will all be shadows of their former selves.

Dave Fair
Reply to  MarkW
May 9, 2023 12:59 pm

Only in Western countries. This is just another nail in the coffin for Western manufacturing.

I hope the damage isn’t permanent before regular consumers wake up to the government’s intention to destroy their standard of living and personal mobility.

KevinM
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 9, 2023 1:41 pm

Google has eliminated “the law of marginal advantage” from my search results. Oh well.
As someone said in 1992, those jobs aren’t coming back. Robots today cost less than Americans and more than (nationality)s. The theory that once (nationality)s expect to be paid better than robots, jobs will travel Southwest competes with the theory that robots will get better at manufacturing. Human manufacturing is not easy.

B Zipperer
Reply to  Dave Fair
May 9, 2023 7:47 pm

I recall reading somewhere a fictitious quote from a worker in some foreign land: “I wonder what happened to that rich country who used to buy the stuff we make?”
We need to wake-up soon. [there must be a “woke” joke in there somewhere!]

KevinM
Reply to  MarkW
May 9, 2023 1:33 pm

Yugo.

KevinM
Reply to  Lee Riffee
May 9, 2023 1:30 pm

What if they thought they were already dead?

Nick Graves
Reply to  Lee Riffee
May 13, 2023 2:08 am

I take it you’re a small businessman, like most of the world.

I believe that the crony-corporatist too big to fail businesses HAVE to go along with the nonsense, or else be cancelled. EXACTLY like in Atlas Shrugged.

What I find interesting is those responsible for rescuing BMW (Quandt, Gieschen, von Kuenheim) from certain death left behind ‘Foundations’ (Trusts) which all seem now to support a lot of this ‘right-on’ nonsense. Just an example…

hiskorr
May 9, 2023 6:47 am

“If you build it, they will come!” is a delusion that should have died with the Edsel and the Mazda rotary engine.

Redge
Reply to  hiskorr
May 9, 2023 10:40 am

My RX7 had a fantastic engine – very thirsty, but 250bhp in a car wearing less than Al Gore, what’s not to like?

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Redge
May 10, 2023 12:52 pm

It was great if you dig oil leaks.

barryjo
May 9, 2023 6:48 am

Clever! They don’t demand you buy their toy, they just slowly reduce your options. So much for freedom of choice.Choose this or walk. Or take a transit bus.

n.n
Reply to  barryjo
May 9, 2023 11:23 am

You have a Choice… uh, choice: abort… your geographical diversity, your transportation diversity, your temporal diversity, your viable destinations.

William Howard
Reply to  barryjo
May 9, 2023 11:28 am

same with air conditioners – making freon & ACs so expensive most won’t be able to afford them

strativarius
May 9, 2023 6:49 am

In the EV world only those who can afford the car, the home charging point, the insurance…. and the subscriptions – for features – will be driving

That’ll get the masses out of the way

n.n
Reply to  strativarius
May 9, 2023 11:24 am

A feature of a trickle-down society is redistribution at the minority’s pleasure.

MarkW
Reply to  strativarius
May 9, 2023 11:36 am

And have enough spare time in their day that the can afford to wait around for the car to charge.

KevinM
Reply to  strativarius
May 9, 2023 1:45 pm

Car price vs inflation chart is fairly flat for about 100 years. COVID shortages caused a mighty spike.

J Boles
May 9, 2023 6:56 am

When it all crumbles down, gang green will just say that we are not doing ENOUGH of it, need more economy of scale, don’t ya know?

n.n
Reply to  J Boles
May 9, 2023 11:26 am

Green blight will subsidize gang Green until diverse tracts of green, brown, and blue are no longer viable.

Bob Johnston
May 9, 2023 6:57 am

I distinctly remember that Volvo had announced in 2017 they’d be all electric by 2019. It obviously didn’t happen. You’d think these guys would have learned their lesson by now.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Bob Johnston
May 9, 2023 9:16 am
KevinM
Reply to  Bob Johnston
May 9, 2023 1:49 pm

GM and ford have stated the same goals with different, longer term, deadlines.
Volvo is Swedish.
The Swedish don’t let employers die.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  KevinM
May 9, 2023 3:02 pm

Hey, maybe they can borrow from the IMF again like the less developed nations.

Sweden’s government predicts steeper GDP contraction (cnbc.com)

Oldseadog
Reply to  KevinM
May 10, 2023 2:09 am

Volvo is owned by the Chinese.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  KevinM
May 10, 2023 1:13 pm

Volvo is owned by China now.

MarkW
Reply to  KevinM
May 10, 2023 3:35 pm

In other words, no matter how badly an employer screws up, the Swedish government will bail them out. It’s not like they are spending their own money.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Bob Johnston
May 10, 2023 12:54 pm

Well remember, Volvo is owned by China. They play the long game, continuing to encourage the stampede off the cliff of the competition.

John_C
Reply to  Bob Johnston
May 11, 2023 12:01 pm

So, they just keep on making the old ICE models, and announce EVs that they’ll never sell, to replace older EV models that they never sold.

J Boles
May 9, 2023 6:57 am

Speaking of lithium, anyone see that 60 minutes piece on getting lithium from the Salton Sea in California? Popcorn, please.

Doug S
Reply to  J Boles
May 9, 2023 7:19 am

Thanks J, I found this YouTube clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zq3x54cgLvM

One of the challenges looks like the water needed to process the Lithium. 1 ton of Li = 50,000 gallons of water.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Doug S
May 9, 2023 9:18 am

1 ton Li = 5,000 investors hooked by 60 minutes paid news and tax credit lures

cimdave
Reply to  J Boles
May 9, 2023 10:07 am

The lithium would be better used as a medication for the Greenies and their enablers

Ronald Stein
May 9, 2023 7:36 am

Is the automobile industry being mandated toward a Death Spiral?

The passion for electric vehicles to help achieve lower emissions in wealthy countries seems to be oblivious to the potentially insurmountable and uncontrollable challenges facing the automobile industry.

Zero emissions at ANY COST seems to be the direction being mandated by governments and the Environmental, Social and Governance movements around the world, to divest in fossil fuels.

https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/is-the-automobile-industry-being-mandated-toward-a-death-spiral  

n.n
Reply to  Ronald Stein
May 9, 2023 11:30 am

You’re no longer viable, self-abort (i.e. Pro-Choice, selective-child), or we’ll abort you (i.e. State’s Choice, one-child).

KevinM
Reply to  n.n
May 9, 2023 1:52 pm

“China’s one-child policy likely contributed to one of the most skewed sex ratios in the world. Today, there are about 116 boys born for every 100 girls born – a ratio much higher than the global one, 107 boys for every 100 girls.”

MarkW
Reply to  Ronald Stein
May 9, 2023 11:38 am

If there was a passion for electric vehicles, government wouldn’t have to force them on us.

rbcherba
May 9, 2023 7:38 am

We’re driving a 1996 Chevy Tahoe and intend to continue driving it until I die — or the Tahoe “dies” or is outlawed by the EPA in some way. (And I’m sure they’ll find a way).

Andy Pattullo
May 9, 2023 8:00 am

This is our “cultural revolution”. Mao would be so proud of us. Perhaps our leaders are aiming to exceed Mao’s benevolent destruction of China’s economy by wiping western democracies off the map all together. Common sense isn’t just uncommon these days, it is being made illegal by the liberal elites.

William Howard
Reply to  Andy Pattullo
May 9, 2023 11:30 am

the green leap forward

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  William Howard
May 10, 2023 1:22 pm

More realistic: The Green Leap Backward

CD in Wisconsin
May 9, 2023 8:02 am

On top of high prices and the strain on the grid which a large fleet of EVs will produce, let us also remind ourselves here that cold and hot weather can also affect the performance of EV batteries as explained below:

https://tinyurl.com/8kz55388

“Most batteries are designed to work in a range of temperatures, but they can be affected by both extreme cold and heat. In general, battery performance declines as the temperature decreases. This is because the chemical reaction inside the battery slows down in colder conditions, meaning it takes longer for the electrons to flow and create power.

As a result, your device may not work as well in cold weather or may run out of power more quickly. If you’re using a lithium-ion battery, such as those found in laptops and smartphones, it’s particularly important to avoid freezing temperatures. These types of batteries can be damaged irreparably if they freeze.

So, if you’re headed outdoors in cold weather with your electronic devices, make sure to keep them warm and dry. While high temperatures don’t have the same effect on all battery types, they can shorten the overall life of the battery. The heat causes the chemicals inside to break down faster, which can lead to reduced capacity and shorter runtime.”

**************

This (along with the climate alarmist and wind and solar narratives) is what happens when progressive and environmental ideologues ignore the facts from the real world that science and engineering provide us. Instead, they follow their utopian ideological fantasies with blind emotional and religious zeal and fervor that can end up making things much worse instead of better.

The worst thing about this is when they find their way into high political office.

B Zipperer
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
May 9, 2023 7:55 pm

CD:
Yes, and among all the things an EV battery has to do, it has to be as small, as light and as energy dense as possible. But these characteristics make it devilishly hard & currently uneconomic to recycle. So add to the list: completely replacing them every 15 years or so.

The Real Engineer
Reply to  B Zipperer
May 10, 2023 1:21 am

I have never owned a Li battery that lasted anything like 15 years, 3-4 years for a phone battery at best. I think that a bad problem is probably approaching the zealots.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  B Zipperer
May 10, 2023 4:49 am

And what are they going to do with all those used EV’s that noone wants to buy because getting a new battery pack is too expensive?

MarkW
Reply to  Tom Abbott
May 10, 2023 3:36 pm

I fore see an increase in 4 door accommodations.

TEWS_Pilot
May 9, 2023 8:30 am

The sad end to this saga is that by the time the entire scheme collapses, the entire transportation sector will have been wiped out, individual ownership of automobiles will be gone, and the landscape will look like something out of a 1950s SciFi movie.

Premium Cracker
Reply to  TEWS_Pilot
May 9, 2023 8:49 am

I suspect that sometime between 2028 and 2030, these policies will create a shortage of all cars, which will drive the cost up. Hopefully this will be the breaking point and things will begin to turn around.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Premium Cracker
May 9, 2023 9:36 am

Yes, pain and more pain before “things begin to turn around”. They will need Calif. Slave Reparations payments just to buy a car of privilege.

story tip

California reparations task force votes to approve recommendations for the payments of reparations to Black Californians | CNN

Tom Abbott
Reply to  ResourceGuy
May 10, 2023 5:01 am

“Calif. Slave Reparations payments”

I thought Larry Elder, a Republican running for president, summed this up properly when he said, “These reparations proposals require people who never owned slaves, to pay money to people who were never slaves.

One more reason for taxpayers to be leaving California.

California Democrats are outdoing themselves in screwing things up in California.

Democrats screw up everything they touch. Don’t give them political power over you. You’ll regret it. Like now.

ppenrose
Reply to  Premium Cracker
May 9, 2023 9:38 am

I hope you’re right, but we will probably lose a few car companies (as in bankrupt) in the process.

MarkW
Reply to  ppenrose
May 9, 2023 11:42 am

If the government will allow the assets of the bankrupt companies to be bought by people who know what the hell they are doing, then the bankruptcies won’t be a problem.
Unfortunately what will happen will be the government will “steer” the assets to friends of Joe.

MarkW
Reply to  Premium Cracker
May 9, 2023 11:40 am

Or they will do like Germany, and just increase the subsidies.

KevinM
Reply to  TEWS_Pilot
May 9, 2023 1:55 pm

Not all of those consequences are bad. Many of us would disagree which ones are the good ones.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  TEWS_Pilot
May 10, 2023 4:54 am

“The sad end to this saga is that by the time the entire scheme collapses, the entire transportation sector will have been wiped out”

I think a lot depends on who is elected president in 2024.

Joe Biden can still do a lot of damage between now and Jan. 2025, but most of that can be reversed if we get the proper proportion of rational thinkers (Conservatives) in the Congress and the presidency.

We still have a chance to right this ship, but we better get busy.

Nick Graves
Reply to  TEWS_Pilot
May 13, 2023 6:10 am

I fear it will look more like the closing scene from Planet of the Apes.

Damn you all to Hell, you bastards!

Premium Cracker
May 9, 2023 8:44 am

Of the 7% market share, how much of this consists of Government and GSE EV purchases due to mandates? I remember seeing an article in which the USPS agreed to purchase a large number of EVs for their delivery fleet.

Beta Blocker
Reply to  Premium Cracker
May 9, 2023 9:38 am

Electric versions of the USPS Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDV) will be coming to our area in 2024. I asked our neighborhood’s USPS postman about his opinions concerning the upcoming replacement of their local delivery trucks with EV’s.

He tells me that he and most of the other Post Office personnel who are employed in our area are completely skeptical these new EV delivery trucks will work out for them.

Too much distance to travel every day, too many temperature extremes in winter, not nearly enough charging infrastructure either in local USPS facilities or anywhere else locally in our area.

KevinM
Reply to  Beta Blocker
May 9, 2023 2:17 pm

I asked our neighborhood’s USPS postman about his opinions
Smart people are everywhere. They are best at what they’ve practiced. AW, for example, maintains “The world’s most viewed site on …”
What has our neighborhood’s USPS postman been practicing for the last however many years?

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Premium Cracker
May 10, 2023 1:33 pm

Neither snow nor sleet nor rain will stop the US Mail.

But worse-than-useless BEVs will stop it in its tracks.

Steve Case
May 9, 2023 8:47 am

So I Googled, “Drink the… and Kool-Aid came right up. The first page listed was Wikipedia with a short history of Jones Town. So I tried a [Ctrl-F] search on “Climate” which came up 0/0. Maybe tomorrow that will change.

Rud Istvan
May 9, 2023 8:48 am

No matter what the Biden EPA might regulate, if it cannot happen it will not happen. And as auto companies continue to lose billions on EV’s, eventually their shareholders will force them to stop.

Beta Blocker
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 9, 2023 9:48 am

As American sales of new cars and trucks continues to decline as a direct consequence of EPA regulations and EV mandates, American auto manufacturers will continue their exit to Asia.

Where they will make a decent profit on ICE cars, assuming Asian nations allow these American corporations to move the bulk of their production operations to those countries.

n.n
Reply to  Beta Blocker
May 9, 2023 11:33 am

First, environmentalism forces labor and environmental arbitrage, then wholesale transmigration, and Americans are employed in a service society. Jane… Joe’s revenge.

KevinM
Reply to  Beta Blocker
May 9, 2023 2:20 pm

What if that’s the plan? Who’s paying our bills while we type this s—.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Beta Blocker
May 10, 2023 5:13 am

“American auto manufacturers will continue their exit to Asia.”

I hear Ford is going to start making the Lincoln model in China.

I would suggest that noone buy a new Lincoln if it is made in China.

I see where Bud Light sales have taken a huge hit. Corporations should take their corporate image seriously, and not do stupid things that alienate their customers. It’s not good for the bottom line.

MarkW
Reply to  Rud Istvan
May 9, 2023 11:44 am

eventually their shareholders will force them to stop.

Which is why the left is doing everything in their power to ensure that companies no longer have to listen to shareholders.

KevinM
Reply to  MarkW
May 9, 2023 2:23 pm

companies no longer have to listen to shareholders.

Implies that they do now. Do shareholders buy companies or do fund managers buy companies?

MarkW
Reply to  KevinM
May 9, 2023 4:31 pm

Last time I checked, fund managers are shareholders.

John Hultquist
May 9, 2023 9:04 am

 A problem not yet mentioned on this post is that of where and how charging of the EV takes place. Do a search for “tallest residential buildings” using the images tag. Those living in these 50 to 100 floor buildings likely won’t have an auto.
Remove the word “tallest” from your search and use “small” instead. This will get views of 3 to 10 floor apartments. Many such complexes are built where an auto is necessary (lack of transit), with parking next to or under the building. Either presents a “charging” issue.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkgkxn/copper-thieves-are-cutting-electric-car-charging-cables-and-stealing-them

MarkW
Reply to  John Hultquist
May 9, 2023 11:46 am

Even without the copper thieves, finding enough available electricity to charge those EVs is becoming more of a problem. And we haven’t even started replacing heating, cooking, etc with electric “powered” versions.

mikelowe2013
Reply to  John Hultquist
May 9, 2023 1:09 pm

And that is without consideration of the fire-hazard!

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  mikelowe2013
May 10, 2023 1:41 pm

I believe Germany has already banned EV parking in parking garages due to the self-ignition-into-a-fire-that-is-impossible-to-extinguish fires.

So you must drive an EV, you just can’t park it in you apartment complex parking garage.

SMH!

More Soylent Green!
May 9, 2023 9:05 am

This is fascist economics at it’s best. Rather than taking ownership of the means of production, big government controls what industry produces and how it produces it. Rather than implementing these controls through laws, the requirements are done by fiat, typically be a bureaucratic agency.

ppenrose
Reply to  More Soylent Green!
May 9, 2023 9:41 am

Yes, this is a nearly textbook example of fascism.

MarkW
Reply to  More Soylent Green!
May 9, 2023 11:47 am

And to think, the left still insists that fascism is a right wing ideology.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  MarkW
May 10, 2023 1:42 pm

And that it is the people who oppose their fascism there are “fascists.”

Nick Graves
Reply to  MarkW
May 13, 2023 6:16 am

Projection – it’s the one thing they’re good at.

You homophone! Or something that sounds like that.

ResourceGuy
May 9, 2023 9:08 am

I think it would be better this time to not push back against policy lunes and let the policy push go over the cliff and wreck the economy before elections. In order to do that, consumers and industries need to save and not spend in order to advance the cliff toward the policy faster. This is not unlike the advice to close the wallet and pocketbooks during the Obama years of overreach / bypass Congress Era. Don’t spend, invest, or borrow in order to prepare and resist.

ResourceGuy
May 9, 2023 9:30 am

Let’s see who bites the dust first: EV startups, Biden, or the Climate Crusades

story tip

Nikola to pause truck production after posting bigger quarterly loss (yahoo.com)

More Soylent Green!
Reply to  ResourceGuy
May 9, 2023 11:00 am

In order, the second, the first and the last.

Right-Handed Shark
May 9, 2023 9:39 am

Here in the UK it seems that the car buying public are waking up to the drawbacks of EV’s, although a lot of the motoring press are still trying to spin them as a success story, with claims that the glut of used EV’s on the market are a sign that owners are trading in their old EV to get a new one that aren’t borne out by the new EV sales figures. In fact it looks like owners are going back to petrol and diesel with sales of some used ICE cars going up in value. Yet there isn’t a commercial break goes by without at least one ad for EV’s being pushed as the greatest thing since sliced bread. “Take the lead” says one, presumably to remind you to take a spare charging lead as yours is likely to get stolen whilst you’re in the supermarket. Another shows a range of EV’s CGI’d onto a slot car track asking: “remember how much fun electric cars were?”. Yes, they were hours of fun when I was a kid, but they didn’t run on batteries. Another ad shows some idyllic imagery whilst a sexy voiced lady spouts some nonsense about the car “whispering to our souls”. Hmmm? Yes, I know that’s what it sounds like, but I’m sure they wouldn’t actually say such a thing on prime time TV. Even if it is more apt. No, I’m sure she says “our souls”, not.. assho.. err, the other thing…

mikelowe2013
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
May 9, 2023 1:16 pm

Same here in New Zealand, where there is no mention of the inability of the national grid to supply sufficient power to recharge them all. Meanwhile the Greenies continue to oppose any suggestions of increasing output using the obvious local fuel in modern coal-fired generation plants. As in the UK, the level of technical-knowledge of our Leftie politicians is about what you would expect – non-existent!

KevinM
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
May 9, 2023 2:31 pm

EV’s CGI’d onto” scary to dwell on future applications of what drug companies used to call “dramatic recreations” when they show USA tv audiences commercials with sneezing people. Like, that’s my city but that’s not the cars I see when I drive through it.

Chris Nisbet
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
May 9, 2023 5:55 pm

Your comment brought back a memory of the electric race track I had as a kid, which was powered by batteries. I used to eek a few more laps out the batteries by warming them up in the oven. Yikes.

JonasM
Reply to  Chris Nisbet
May 10, 2023 9:23 am

Wow. Haven’t thought about that in ages. I dimly recall the same.
Ah, the good ol’ days..

ResourceGuy
May 9, 2023 9:41 am

Those $100,000 EVs will need to drive themselves to the homes of the privileged since the trucks and truckdrivers will be gone.

A Heavy Dose of Reality for Electric-Truck Mandates – Watts Up With That?

William Howard
May 9, 2023 11:23 am

simply amazing that so many supposedly intelligent people are swallowing the Kool-Aid

n.n
Reply to  William Howard
May 9, 2023 11:36 am

Don’t underestimate the promise of [renewable] profit, [political] progress, and comic… karmic relief.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  William Howard
May 9, 2023 12:31 pm

Federal revenues are lower than expected YTD causing the technical default date to come sooner than expected, Federal spending is up, and mandates/regulations are through the roof. What could possibly go wrong?

joel
Reply to  William Howard
May 9, 2023 1:30 pm

Most of my relatives are educated and intelligent and are 100% OK with this stuff.
It seems to be that “this stuff” is tied into their self-image. It makes them completely unwilling to investigate these questions objectively. Changing their minds on green energy would would endanger their entire world view and self-image. (And, perhaps their jobs.) After all, if one of my relatives decided that green energy was a fraud, despite being told by their favored politicians and by their news sources (NPR, NYTIMES), he would then be forced to question EVERYTHING else he has been told by these people. Where would it end? Better not to go there. As long as their paychecks and perks keep coming, questioning the narrative “serves no useful purpose.”

Tom Abbott
Reply to  joel
May 10, 2023 9:14 am

“he would then be forced to question EVERYTHING else he has been told by these people. Where would it end? Better not to go there.”

I think that is the sentiment of a lot of people who think the climate science is settled.

John Oliver
May 9, 2023 12:34 pm

Seems like every time I go on a long trip, especially traveling back north in cold weather there will be these EVs just kind of limping along at about 48 mph ,I guess trying to make it to the next charging station.

KevinM
May 9, 2023 1:18 pm

“Light- Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles.”
USA does not make many of those anymore. USA makes pickup trucks.

I think it would be more fair-minded to look at the story the opposite way. Auto manufacture is for robots or unskilled labor, neither of which employ USA labor/voters. USA politicians might be (trying to) design regulations that push environmental cost to offshore interests (car) without hurting onshore interests (tuck).

Bob
May 9, 2023 1:20 pm

The EPA needs to be disbanded, it has outlived it’s usefulness. I don’t understand why anyone would expect that corporate America would see the value in standing up to big government. Corporations will follow the dollar where ever it leads them. Big government is in the pocket of big corporations and big corporations are in the pocket of big government. We need to inform all the little guys that they are being lied to, cheated and manipulated. They may not understand science or economics or philosophy or many other things but they damn sure know they don’t want to be screwed, we are getting it big time. Big government won’t stop it, big business won’t stop it, big education won’t stop it, big labor won’t stop it, big religion won’t stop it, big science won’t stop it only the guy on the street will end this nonsense.

Editor
May 9, 2023 2:26 pm

Every new car will be sold with a free bicycle. The car does 160gpm CO2, the bicycle 0gpm, average 80gpm. EPA rule satisfied. Creative car companies will find other things to replace the bicycle, maybe the vehicle details of an EV still on the production line but ‘paid’ for now (and therefore a sale) to be delivered when it comes off the production line (could take a while).

But better, of course, as Joseph Zorzin says on this thread, and thousands of others say on other threads, is to find politicians with guts.

Ian_e
Reply to  Mike Jonas
May 10, 2023 1:45 am

Well, yes, better but, really, next you’ll be out looking for unicorns.

Graham
May 9, 2023 3:07 pm

There are no road vehicles manufactured in New Zealand but that does not stop the socialists interfering .
Our government pays a subsidy on all new electric vehicles purchased but are taxing every new Utility vehicle sold (the UTE tax).
Just another cost for farmers to pay and for tradesmen to pass on with increased mileage charges to their customers .
The greens have got far to much power here in new Zealand as they keep the government in power . I am sure they have death wish as they cannot see where their crazy policies are leading our country.
This came about when MMP was introduced and votes for each party are added up and this entitles members on a party list to take seats in our parliament .
All the heavy industry will move to Asia as Asia is increasing their use of both coal and oil as the rest of the world decarbonizes.
The world coal use was steady at 4.7 billion tonnes for ten years before 2008 but has now increased to over 8 billion tonnes with China using 5.3 billion tonnes .
Why should countries commit economic suicide going carbon zero ?
Heavy industry will always be needed as all machines and infrastructure needs constant replacement and repair despite what the green religion tells us .

nutmeg
May 9, 2023 4:06 pm

“Might you think that the auto makers would be pushing back on behalf of themselves and their customers to keep combustion vehicles available? You would be wrong“

Under the Obama administration Gibson Guitars was driven to bankruptcy by corrupt Democrats simply for donating to the wrong party. The holders of GM preferred stock (mostly retirement funds) lost billions that were handed over to unions in exchange for kickbacks, Chrysler stockholders saw their shares given to Fiat. The auto makers can’t afford to push back.

Ian_e
Reply to  nutmeg
May 10, 2023 1:43 am

Yep: catch 22 – they can’t afford NOT to push back. C’est la vie mort.

Bob Rogers
May 9, 2023 5:28 pm

For those who are too young to remember, Jonestown is where the phrase “drinking the Koolaid” comes from.

John Hultquist
Reply to  Bob Rogers
May 9, 2023 7:54 pm

In fact, the group likely didn’t drink Kool-Aid; instead, they drank a version called Flavor Aid, said to be British but seemingly made in West Chicago.
Like lemmings, ostriches and a few other myths – who cares?
What difference at this point does it make?”.

stinkerp
May 9, 2023 5:44 pm

This will get challenged in court and defeated. EPA has no authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate CO2, which is not a pollutant, and they cannot require emissions standards so strict on vehicles that manufacturers cannot meet them. The fact that it will require a court challenge to stop this is antithetical to a functioning democracy, and especially the one envisioned by the authors of the Constitution. Congress is the place where our representatives are supposed to debate and compromise and vote. If they vote against our wishes, we can remove them. No such check exists for unelected bureaucrats in the Executive Branch. They have no business making law and the Constitution doesn’t authorize them to, but the blinkety blank Democrats in 1946 gave them de facto legislative authority in the Administrtive Procedure Act; another travesty from the progressives of the Roosevelt/Truman administrations that have plagued us for decades.

B Zipperer
Reply to  stinkerp
May 9, 2023 8:29 pm

stinkerp
In the 5-4 Massachusetts vs EPA [2007] decision SCOTUS ruled that the EPA could regulate CO2 [calling it a pollutant]. Sadly, the Trump administration never questioned this “endangerment finding” [of CO2] so it still stands.
But I completely agree that the EPA does not have the authority to dictate a standard that effectively outlaws ICE vehicles. Congress never intended them to have that power.
So the upcoming “Chevron deference” case that the Supremes have agreed to hear this Fall will be crucial. [Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo]
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/01/supreme-court-chevron-doctrine-climate-change-00094670 and for a different take:
https://reason.com/volokh/2023/05/01/chevron-matters-but-not-as-much-as-you-might-think/

macha
May 9, 2023 6:15 pm

Maybe ICE makers will develop and install mini-carbon capture devices so emissions are below specs. Dump like caravans and Winnebago campers do at designated places.

MarkW
May 10, 2023 10:11 am
higley7
May 10, 2023 10:12 am

As I understand it, no internal-combustion car can meet this 82 g/mile CO2 emission standard on its own”

51 m/gal is the highest one can get without a car that is too expensive to buy and needs to carefully go up hills and coast down hills. It would takes hours to go a 100 miles.

82 m/gal is a joke and technically impossible to put it plainly.

John_C
Reply to  higley7
May 11, 2023 12:52 pm

The standard is 82 grams of CO2 per mile. Not 82 miles per gallon. The 2000 Honda Insight was rated over 70mpg, a single passenger version might be able to break 82 (less weight, less drag, narrower tires). But, yes, trying to make a glorified aerodynamic version of the CB75 the “average automobile” is very much an unfunny joke.

82 gms is just over 2 moles of CO2.Burning about a quarter mole of gasoline will generate 2 moles of CO2. 26.5grams of gasoline is a quarter mole of octane. Which is about 35 1/3 ml or about .001 US gallons. At .001 gallons per mile, that’s 1000 mpg. You can see why they don’t write it in mpg. Maybe we can find one of those 1960s magazines and order the 1000mile per gallon carburetors that were advertised in the back pages.

Leslie MacMillan
Reply to  John_C
May 11, 2023 9:53 pm

35 ml is 0.01 gallon, not 0.001. So 82 g CO2 per mile is about 100 mpg.
Of the top of my head that means the industry will have to sell about 2/3 electric to get a fleet average of 100 mpg.
The rub here is that the industry can’t force car buyers as a group to buy 2 EVs for every ICE. Car buyers (except fleet owners) are individuals who buy one car at a time. All it can do is tell its *dealers* that they have to buy 2 EVs for every ICE they are allotted. The dealers will baulk at being told they have to buy 2 expensive cars that won’t sell except as inventory clearance for every one they can make a profit on.

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